-$10,000 downswing...hands for review

[IRV]

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Looks to me like running badly has frusturated you and caused you to start making a lot more mistakes and taking a lot more risks for a lot worse reasons then you probably do when you're winning.

We're all here talking about how to play the hand its self but nobody has mentioned things like your table image and the opponents perceptions of you, especially if you've been a loser in the game lately or have been caught making dubious plays or marginal calls. The entire game changes then, and everything your opponents do vs you change at that point. They won't treat you like they treat a "solid winner" or even a nit.

In a lot of these hands imo you're just firing chips at the pot trying to muscle guys out of pots, or making long calls not having a clue where you're at.

Get your head clear and stop playing for a few days, if you can't get your mind/heart in line then you're sitting down at the table as a big dog to start.

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I tried to say something similiar in 2 words.

[emil3000]

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Slooooowwww doowwwnnnn.

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Listen, you've bet into what is described as a calling station maniac twice on an extremely drawy board and been just called. I'll tell you what he doesn't ahve and that's two pair or better. Now all the draws missed which means you can either represent a busted draw, or check call to win against opponents busted draw (he could have a 4, but only by accident). Now I personally think his hand range consists of more draws than made hands, which means check call is probably the best play, but if you decide to bet here, the best bet is all in. He has a little more than 500 left, and there's 300 in the pot. I feel quite convinced that the best bet is all in here.

[Triumph36]

Hand 3 don't bet, he's calling. No one will ever believe you have a queen here and if he called the turn he's calling the river.

In my defense for hand 4, I feel the preflop limp is marginal, yes, but I had good position on the table which was playing pretty weak at the time. I will insta-limp JTo here (cuz it makes only nut straights) and I felt J9o was just a step below.

I try to see as many profitable (and marginal) flops as possible if I feel I am playing better than my opponents (which I did at the time) and have good position and am willing to fold if I make a marginal hand AND FEEL THAT I AM BEAT which happens pretty damn often with J9o.

But the fact that I had position was key since so often when the flop comes rags and its checked around to the button/cutoff a pot sized bet will take it down there VERY VERY VERY often (which was what I was hoping for on this board since it was so ragged).

I don't recall if I had a solid read on the button for this hand but I had a feeling he had a very marginal hand (an iffy pair of 8s, 56, or a flush draw.

When the turn came [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I decided to give up due to the stack sizes but when he checked behind I knew he didn't have a mid flush since he would have DEFINATELY bet there. Perhaps he was slowplaying the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] but that was the only made hand I was afraid of.

On the river, a Q pops out which is a good scarecard if he has a marginal hand like a pair of 8s or 99/TT/JJ and felt I could move him off it with a 2x PSB since if I make a PSB he may see through my bluff since I checked turn but when I overbet this big I was trying to make it look like I was making up for missed value with a flush.

[IRV]

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Slooooowwww doowwwnnnn.

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Listen, you've bet into what is described as a calling station maniac twice on an extremely drawy board and been just called. I'll tell you what he doesn't ahve and that's two pair or better. Now all the draws missed which means you can either represent a busted draw, or check call to win against opponents busted draw (he could have a 4, but only by accident). Now I personally think his hand range consists of more draws than made hands, which means check call is probably the best play, but if you decide to bet here, the best bet is all in. He has a little more than 500 left, and there's 300 in the pot. I feel quite convinced that the best bet is all in here.

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Emil, my comment "Sloooooowwwww Dooooooowwwwwn" was directed at OP. Please see purple's post.

[Thremp]

Keep in mind Grim moved up to these limits by making these type of plays. He's like Zeebo lite.

[emil3000]

OK, sorry. You did reply to me tho.

[n1bd]

Sklansky say: If you have a solid read and can fold correctly when he hits, your best play is to make him pay on the flop, but only so much so that you have enough left in your stack to make him fold a blank turn (or rather, to make him make a 0 ev call on the turn).

Say there is $100 in the pot and you and your opponent both have $150 left to bet. He has a flush draw.

If you bet the flop all in and he is smart, he folds and you win $100.

If you bet the flop all in and he is dumb and calls, you win .65 * $400 - $150 = $110.

If you bet $70 on the flop, the pot has $240 on a blank turn, and you can bet $80, giving him 4:1. Let's say he folds (his decision is ev-neutral, so it doesn't really matter what he does). You win 4/5 * $240 - $70 = $122.


That is the math nerd answer.

In real life, there are two complications.


One, you don't always know when you've been outdrawn. Like, maybe he has J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. If he hits a higher pair or two pair or trips on the turn, you have a problem.

Two, if shania is a consideration with your opponents, then you don't want to play your semibluffs differently from your good hands, and you probably don't want to play your semibluffs in the way I described above. An all-in semibluff gives you more fold equity (usually), lets you see all 5 cards, and doesn't let your opponent get away when you hit.


So in your QQ hand, I think all in on the flop is a good play.

[mikechops]

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5. Looks OK, but why not wait and push non- turn? You don't have fold equity against a FD and could save yourself money if he hits.

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Are you saying that if he has a flushdraw, you would rather SMOOTHCALL here and WAIT FOR A BLANK to charge him most? Why not just PUSH now and get stacks in WHILE YOUR A 2:1 FAVORITE rather than waiting for a MUST BLANK and pushing so that he will FOLD his DONKEYFLUSHDRAW

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Err yes I guess that's what I was saying. I actually knocked up a spreadsheet with the outs as an input variable and calculates the payoffs for turn miss/river hit etc and compares pushing flop to smooth-calling and pushing a brick turn. It turned out with 8 outs for a simple FD pushing pre-flop is better by almost $100.

However, that's a bit optimistic. A lot (most?) of the draws will have A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or possible straight draws, giving 11, 13 or more outs. In these cases, smooth calling and pushing works out better. Break even is 10.5 outs.

Obviously we aren't playing FTOP poker so we don't know, where we stand. I'd say pushing flop is better but not by much.