Odds needed to play small pocket pair into a raise

[stevefrench]

Up until now, my thinking has been to call a pre flop raise with a small pocket pair if the smaller stack between myself and my opponent is at least 8 bets.(Aprox. implied odds needed to try to flop set) I'm starting to think I need to see deeper stacks than that to justify chasing the set.

First, there's no guarantee that he wont fold before I get nearly that much of his stack when I do hit the set. Second, there's a chance that my opponent or someone else in the pot will chase a flush or a straight draw and hit it by the river.

I'm not sure how to quantify it, but I think you need to see at least 12 or 15 bets in his stack that you could potentially win in order to justify seing a flop in this situation.

I'm curious on what anyone elses thoughts are on this.

[O_Witty]

[ QUOTE ]
First, there's no guarantee that he wont fold before I get nearly that much of his stack when I do hit the set. Second, there's a chance that my opponent or someone else in the pot will chase a flush or a straight draw and hit it by the river.

[/ QUOTE ] My understanding is simliar to yours, his stack should be about 8 to 9 times the bet that is out there for you to be getting to right odds to call. Otherwise even when you do trip up your not gonna be able to get enough money even if u do get his whole stack to make it a profitable play. You go into him folding and other people chasing that has nothing to do with your odds pre-flop that has to do with your post-flop play ability.

[schroedy]

Per Ciaffone ("Pot Limit and No Limit Poker"):

Call if the bet is 5% or less of the smaller stack (yours or his) fold if the bet is 10% or more of the smaller stack and use your judgment in the middle (note that your 8 times rule is breaking this rule).

Using your judgment involves evaluating what your opponent holds, how likely he is to stack off against your set with a lesser hand, etc.

[PacketPuppy]

There was a recent forum discussion printed in Card Player that goes into calling raises with non-premium pocket pairs. It is very insightful: http://forums.cardplayer.com/viewtop...=315359#315359

In a nutshell, this article suggests a target of 24 times the big blind if you hit your set.

Brian

[schroedy]

[ QUOTE ]
In a nutshell, this article suggests a target of 24 times the big blind if you hit your set.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a mischaracterization and oversimplification of the point. First off it is 24x the BB only because the original raise was precisely 3x the BB. Second off, he states that EVEN if the stack sizes are there, he shouldn't always call if the raiser is a tight player that won't pay him off.

I think Ciaffone's 5/10 formula is best.

[tufat23]

if the guy only has 7/8 times the raise, im generally a little wary of calling, since i may not get stack value out of it.
however if we're deep stacked, 100bb each, and he opens for 4bb, well i'll call with any mid/small pp.

[Black winter day]

I use the x10 ratio.
Sets are usually very profitable so i almost never fold pp for less than X5bb raise if his stack is 10 times bigger than the amount i have to call.