Folding a Set

[JC_Saves]

It is fairly early in a $20 UB SNG. I have no read on the guy to my right.



Hand #31802561-32 at SnG-0024a1 (No Limit Hold'em Sit and Go)
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Started at 14/May/06 19:39:58

haluuu is at seat 4 with 2480.
JC_Saves is at seat 5 with 2140.
The button is at seat 0.

coondog123 posts the small blind of 20.
johnny nyc2 posts the big blind of 40.

<font color="red"> JC_Saves: Qd Qc </font>

Pre-flop:
Rustymonkey folds. haluuu calls. JC_Saves raises to
150. Trader___ folds. kirkhash folds. vicsg35
folds. coondog123 folds. johnny nyc2 folds.
haluuu calls.

<font color="red"> Flop (board: 2s 9d Td):</font>

haluuu checks. JC_Saves bets 200. haluuu calls.

<font color="red"> Turn (board: 2s 9d Td Qh): </font>

haluuu checks. JC_Saves bets 500. haluuu calls.

<font color="red"> River (board: 2s 9d Td Qh Ks):</font>

haluuu goes all-in for 1630. JC_Saves ?

Given how this hand played would you call the all-in here? or give him credit for a J and fold. It is early in this SNG and I still have 30bbs if I fold here.

I found it very odd that he ck/called and then when the K hits he bets all in after calling me down. In hindsight, I find this very curious because if he had the nuts wouldn't he want me to bet and then he could come over the top, or is this just a value bet in case I check the river scare card?

[Wolfram]

Flop bet is a little small but ok I guess.

I bet 2/3 pot on that flop, and push the turn. As played I would probably fold the river. The reason for that is not that I think we're behind, but I'm not willing to risk a playable stack on calling a 1 card straight draw.

[silvershade]

Hmmm, what can the guy have?

I guess JT is a possibility, or 2 diamonds including the J, I have trouble seeing what else he might have played that way. Honestly, I think he's missed his draw, so I'd probably call and get ready to fire up another SnG if I'm wrong.

I push the turn myself anyway, the board is a little too draw heavy and even if you are behind you will have some outs.

[Wolfram]

On second thought, a call is probably fine. This looks lika a desperate attempt from a missed draw to steal the pot since the K is pretty scary. Reads would help though.

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, what can the guy have?

[/ QUOTE ]

QJ?

[AceLuby]

I put him on the missed diamond draw, possibly 2 pr. If he had the J he would let you bet at it and then go all-in. I think you need to bet the pot on the flop and push on the turn though. That way you don't get yourself into these situations.

[gumpzilla]

If he had checked the river, you're almost certainly checking behind, so I don't think we can say the bet means no J. You're getting somewhat better than 2:1 on this call here, which means you don't have to be good all that often for this to be profitable. I think he's bluffing or playing two pair like this pretty often, often enough that you can probably call. I think it's a fairly close decision and I doubt you're going too wrong either way, without a read.

[illegit]

He could very easily have a Jack. The talk of "oh he'd probably check if he had a jack" is just a wrong. A good player will either make a small value bet here with a Jack, or sometimes a big overbet. And a bad player would often do one of these two things as well. But J9/JT/QJ/KJ etc. are all easily in his range

I also see people make plays like this with say T9. They were slowplaying their top 2 and when the board comes to where a single card (a jack) can beat them they get angry and go all-in as if they can get a Jack to fold. Same with horribly donked AA/KK/TT/99 etc.

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you need to bet the pot on the flop and push on the turn though. That way you don't get yourself into these situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definetly, betting 200 in this pot is way too low on the flop. even the way the pot is now, I can see myself pushing it (or at least betting 900 or so) on this turn.