100/200 Ugly flop spot, whats the plan?

[ike]

Party Poker 100/200 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>

Villain is a seemingly solid TAG who I don't have a ton of hands with. What sort of range do you think he's c/r'ing with here and whats my plan?

[Entity]

Qx, [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]s, and Kx. I'd usually call the flop, call turn, and make a decision on the river, ditching when [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and straight cards hit.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

I think hes checkraising here with Qx, two spades, Kx, KJ,JT,KT possibly a slowplayed AA or KK. I would call the flop checkraise and call a blank turn and river. But if a card like the Ace of spades hits the turn, Im done with the hand.

[steveyz]

Exactly what I'd say. JT is possible as well.

[rory]

how come we aren't folding

[PartyGirlUK]

We aren't doing well v. his range.

Board: Ks Ts Jh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 23.6997 % 21.19% 02.51% { Jd8h }
Hand 2: 76.3003 % 73.79% 02.51% { AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs-K5s, Q8s+, JTs, Q9o+, JTo }

That indicates a fold, BUT that doesnt take into account that we can reevaluate on the turn. For example.

A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is an easy fold

Board: Ks Ts Jh As
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 06.6919 % 02.53% 04.17% { Jd8h }
Hand 2: 93.3081 % 89.14% 04.17% { AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs-K5s, Q8s+, JTs, Q9o+, JTo }

But interestingly, even on 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] turn

Board: Ks Ts Jh 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.2324 % 25.19% 01.04% { Jd8h }
Hand 2: 73.7676 % 72.73% 01.04% { AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs-K5s, Q8s+, JTs, Q9o+, JTo }

[rory]

that hand range is kinda narrow-- the villian is the bb defending against a button steal in a high limit game. his suited cards are probably bottoming out at like 24s cause he is playing 100/200 and has ballz and no way is he giving up his blind with suited cards he probably has all kinds of lame kings in there and retarded queens and what not. mentally retarded queens.

[OnkelHotte]

I'd fold the flop! Too much trouble here. Villain isn't stupid. I think he knows, that this board is no invitation for a bluff.

[I.Rowboat]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold the flop! Too much trouble here. Villain isn't stupid. I think he knows, that this board is no invitation for a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. This board is actually an excellent board for bluffing/semi-bluffing, and if I am the villain and I call the raise in the BB, I am going to make a play for this pot at some point -- I want to apply some pressure and see if the button is for real or FOS. Because of the draw heavy nature of this flop, villain would be best to make a probe raise on the flop, as the turn may very well give the hero another leg of a draw, and that will make it harder to push the hero out. Also, even if villain is a TAG, this game is 6 handed and hero is raising from the button; standards are going to be relaxed.

From the hero's perspective, if I'm stealing the blinds with J8o and I hit the flop like this, against most opponents I'm going to see at least the turn and reevaluate, and against some opponents I am going to reraise. The hero has middle pair/weak kicker, but hero's button raise could have been made with Ax, a small pp, or even small suited connectors. Villain's c/r could be with almost anything, and I would be willing to invest another flop bet to see if he is for real. There are a lot of cards that can come on the turn that will allow me to bluff at the pot against a thinking opponent; against a calling station I'd obv. have to take a different line.

If villain caps and bets a blank turn, I will probably fold.
If villain caps and checks a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] turn, I'll bet.
If villain calls and checks the turn, I'll probably bet anything, but I'll fold to a turn c/r; if villain calls the turn bet, I'm checking behind UI on the river.

If this goes to showdown, some percentage of the time the hero is going to be shown Kx, JT, or maybe even JQ, but a lot of the time villain might show T9, J4s, Q8s, and other random hands over which we are slight favorites.

I dunno...I don't claim the above is gospel, just my .02 cents.

[skp]

[ QUOTE ]
Qx, s, and Kx.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he could also easily have Jx and Tx, couldn't he?

[ QUOTE ]
I'd usually call the flop, call turn, and make a decision on the river, ditching when and straight cards hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a reasonable plan as long as you are confident that he would not bet the river if he missed. If he would bet the river if he missed (a more likely posibility IMO given the limit level and given hero's mere calls), then your plan wouldn't be very good i.e. call the flop raise, call the turn bet, and then fold for just one more bet.

To make myself more clear, if your opponent is capable of betting the river with a busted straight draw when a river spade comes or if he is capable of betting a busted flush draw when an Ace, nine, or Queen comes, I don't like your plan.

As for what I would do, who knows? Sticky situation, that's for sure. I woullprolly mix it up between call downs and raise turn/check river.

I think folding to the flop checkraise or a turn bet (if it's an airball) is wrong. Hero does have second pair in a button vs. bb spot in a shorthanded game. That kinda hand simply can't be folded in that spot.

We know that BB doesn't have a big hand either on this flop because he probably would have 3 bet preflop with any hand that gives him a big hand on this flop. One exception might be J9 but with that hand, I imagine that he would at least some of the time go for a checkraise on the turn instead of the flop.