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#11
05-12-2006, 08:26 PM
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Re: A bunch of standard, basic hands from the blinds
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Why is raising the flop definetly better than waiting for the turn in hand 5? He's 6 outs a majority of the time and is usually gonna bet again. [/ QUOTE ] Well one issue is that you don't know when he's hit any of those outs. Per Pokerstove, your equity on the flop against what I believe his range should be is about 58%. Your equity goes DOWN if any overcard comes to the four (obviously paint cards hurt you worse), if any heart comes ... and then you get into this ugly situation where you could face a 3-bet and at least have to peel a card and might have to call down. [/ QUOTE ] Just to provide a little more detail on this... Assuming that your opponent raises with the following range (this is about 45% of his holdings) 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J6s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A2o+,K6o+,Q8 o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o your equity on the flop is 59%. Given the particular card that came off (the T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]), your equity dropped to 53%. Some cards are obviously worse than this; for example the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] drops your equity to 48%. Even the innocent looking 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] slightly reduces your equity to 57%. In fact, only 10 cards in the deck improve your equity: the two remaining 4's, the three remaining queens, the three remaining treys, and the two offsuit deuces. The situation is different if you had Q9o and had paired the nine. Now, any queen, nine, and two improve your equity, as do any non-heart undercard to the nines. [/ QUOTE ] Great post. I need to do more math like this, you're 100% right on this hand. 
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#12
05-12-2006, 08:34 PM
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Re: A bunch of standard, basic hands from the blinds
[ QUOTE ]
Great post. I need to do more math like this, you're 100% right on this hand. [/ QUOTE ] I totally agree, that was a very solid, clear, and illuminating anlysis. - Andrew
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#13
05-12-2006, 10:00 PM
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Re: A bunch of standard, basic hands from the blinds
[ QUOTE ]
Per Pokerstove, your equity on the flop against what I believe his range should be is about 58%. Your equity goes DOWN if any overcard comes to the four (obviously paint cards hurt you worse), if any heart comes ... and then you get into this ugly situation where you could face a 3-bet and at least have to peel a card and might have to call down. [/ QUOTE ] Well your equity on the turn will be the same whether or not you raise the flop... so why not call the flop and re-evaluate your equity on the turn before deciding with more information whether to raise or call down? I've been wondering about this for a while so I'd really like an answer - ty.
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#14
05-13-2006, 04:04 PM
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Re: A bunch of standard, basic hands from the blinds
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Per Pokerstove, your equity on the flop against what I believe his range should be is about 58%. Your equity goes DOWN if any overcard comes to the four (obviously paint cards hurt you worse), if any heart comes ... and then you get into this ugly situation where you could face a 3-bet and at least have to peel a card and might have to call down. [/ QUOTE ] Well your equity on the turn will be the same whether or not you raise the flop... so why not call the flop and re-evaluate your equity on the turn before deciding with more information whether to raise or call down? I've been wondering about this for a while so I'd really like an answer - ty. [/ QUOTE ] The problem, in a nutshell, is that unless you hit two pair or trips, your hand simply isn't good enough to wait to raise the turn. There will usually be two overcards to your pair on the board, (almost) any pocket pair beats you, and you could even be outkicked. I think you give yourself a better parlay on the flop when your opponent will be more inclined to play back at you or call down with worse hands. I also don't think that just calling down the whole way against a very aggressive opponent is a horrible option; in my experience people fire three bullets here pretty often.
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#16
05-13-2006, 07:54 PM
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Re: A bunch of standard, basic hands from the blinds
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your hand simply isn't good enough to wait to raise the turn. [/ QUOTE ] this is the main point i used to come to the raising the flop strategy w/o doing all the great work nate did here. people like to raise the turn w/ hands like that but then they sometimes get 3 bet and fold incorrectly or call down incorrectly which are both hugely costly mistakes. further, raising the flop w/ hands like these that go to showdown make your opponent fear betting the flop more and be more willing to lay down hands that have more than enough outs to call 1 bet on the flop (most dont but even having an opponent do this rarely is a plus)...this, in conjunction w/ raising the flop as well on draws or as a multi-street bluff setup makes you far more dangerous in the bb than a flop caller/turn raiser despite the 'extra expense' of playing back at such a player on the turn from the sb. sorry if thats not entirely clear, hopefully you can see my point re: balance. Barron
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#17
05-13-2006, 10:01 PM
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Re: A bunch of standard, basic hands from the blinds
How high of a percentage are you betting the turn if a blank hits and its checked to you?
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#18
05-14-2006, 01:31 AM
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Re: A bunch of standard, basic hands from the blinds
[ QUOTE ]
How high of a percentage are you betting the turn if a blank hits and its checked to you? [/ QUOTE ] fairly often. the real choice is what to do when checkraised. Barron
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#19
05-14-2006, 08:58 AM
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Re: A bunch of standard, basic hands from the blinds
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] How high of a percentage are you betting the turn if a blank hits and its checked to you? [/ QUOTE ] fairly often. the real choice is what to do when checkraised. Barron [/ QUOTE ] Barring history/reads IMO, bet flop c/r turn is a strong hand more times than not, so probably fold assuming you aren't getting the price to draw to two pair/trips.
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#20
05-14-2006, 01:49 PM
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Re: A bunch of standard, basic hands from the blinds
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] How high of a percentage are you betting the turn if a blank hits and its checked to you? [/ QUOTE ] fairly often. the real choice is what to do when checkraised. Barron [/ QUOTE ] totally agree. one of my problems is trying to deal with the overuse of the turn semibluff checkraise in today's games. it seems especially tough with a hand like this.
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