one hand 50$PLO8 on Party

fettsack · #1 05-07-2006, 10:39 AM

Hi, thats my first handpost.

Question: what to do now?

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $46.50
Hero: $55.22
MP1: $48.50
MP2: $74.89
MP3: $45.66
CO: $47.17
Button: $32.64
SB: $70.10
BB: $34.29

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero calls, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $2.25, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($9, 4 players)
SB bets $8.55, BB calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($43.2, 4 players)
SB bets $41.05,...

Bruce_Wayne · #2 05-07-2006, 11:15 AM

On the turn it's time to shove. Your Villain prob flopped a set of Kings or Queens, but even so you've got outs to a scoop or a half. If the other players decide to come along too then it's an absolute no brainer. You'll be getting about 3 to 1 on your money with a nut flush draw and a nut low draw.

PorkPieHat · #3 05-08-2006, 11:05 AM

I'll disagree and say this is not such an insta call. Would be nice to know if the BB called tho.

If you end up heads up against another A2 with something for high (like 2 pair), you are almost a 3:1 dog:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1709583
pokenum -o8 ah 2h 5s 7c - ad 2s kc qc -- kd 3h qh 8s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing 8s Kd Qh 3h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
5s 7c Ah 2h 4 8 32 0 4 0 14 0.287
2s Kc Qc Ad 18 32 8 0 0 0 14 0.713

If the draws are broken up, (like the BB has the low draw and SB has 2 pair) then your odds are about the same, but you're getting a better price:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1709588
pokenum -o8 ah 2h 5s 7c - ad 2s 9h 6c - kc qc 7s 4d -- kd 3h qh 8s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing 8s Kd Qh 3h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
5s 7c Ah 2h 3 7 29 0 4 0 11 0.271
2s 6c Ad 9h 0 0 36 0 0 4 11 0.076
7s Kc Qc 4d 18 29 7 0 0 10 0 0.653

Even with the BB along for the ride you still don't have the 33% equity you need to call this on math numbers alone. You'd need some implied odds (that you'll get called if the flush hits) to justify it.

This is also assuming that many of your hearts are live, which may not be the case at all.

I'd say you should lay it down.

januarymute · #4 05-08-2006, 11:41 AM

Pretend that you're standing behind your bitch wife of 10 years at the top of the stairs that go down to the basement and SHOVE.

Kuso · #5 05-08-2006, 11:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Pretend that you're standing behind your bitch wife of 10 years at the top of the stairs that go down to the basement and SHOVE.

[/ QUOTE ]

lovely metaphor and good advice.

PorkPieHat · #6 05-08-2006, 11:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Pretend that you're standing behind your bitch wife of 10 years at the top of the stairs that go down to the basement and SHOVE.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd agree with that on the flop, but not the turn.

januarymute · #7 05-08-2006, 12:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pretend that you're standing behind your bitch wife of 10 years at the top of the stairs that go down to the basement and SHOVE.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd agree with that on the flop, but not the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
IMO you've got it backwards.

PorkPieHat · #8 05-08-2006, 12:32 PM

Mute, I'd figure I have some fold equity on the flop, but none on the turn. I am gonna be heads up with the SB and perhaps get someone to come along. Either way, I am a dog in both situations, so why should I put money in when I am that far behind?

If I was first to act then I'd have enough potential fold equity to try it, but SB clearly is not going anyplace. The only hand I can beat right now is a K-high flush draw that has no pair either, it's doubtful I'm up against that.

I can't say that I am definitely right at all here, but I can't find a reason to shove that turn. What big piece am I missing?

januarymute · #9 05-08-2006, 01:06 PM

It is +EV if a third player comes along, guaranteed.

It is also +EV when you have the lone low draw:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing 8s Kd Qh 3h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
5s 7c Ah 2h 8 8 32 0 19 0 0 0.388
Ts Kc Qc 6d 17 32 8 0 0 0 0 0.613

So, it looks to me like the only time continuing on the turn is -EV is when you get heads up against a worst-case scenario hand for your opponent. And even then, you're only giving up ~6% equity in a $130 pot, which works out to about 7 BB or so. So working through full range of hands, I think it's +EV, and even when it isn't, the mistake is small and worth the metagame benefit of tripling up 20% of the time.

fettsack · #10 05-08-2006, 02:02 PM

Thank you all for your replys,
here is the result.

MP2 calls and the heart hits.

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $46.50
Hero: $55.22
MP1: $48.50
MP2: $74.89
MP3: $45.66
CO: $47.17
Button: $32.64
SB: $70.10
BB: $34.29

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero calls, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $2.25, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($9, 4 players)
SB bets $8.55, BB calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($43.2, 4 players)
SB bets $41.05, BB folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($166.35, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero raises all-in $3.37, MP2 raises all-in $23.04.
Uncalled bets: $23.04 returned to MP2.

Results:
Final pot: $169.72
Hero shows 5s Ah 7c 2h 
MP2 shows 7h Th 5d 4d