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#11
05-08-2006, 05:11 AM
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Re: +EV or Gamboool??
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] A quick spreadsheet simulation tells me that, given no reads, it is seriously -EV. (Expected return on the $107 bet is around $80). [/ QUOTE ] I call bull [censored]. Let's see that spreadsheet. [/ QUOTE ] 
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#12
05-08-2006, 06:09 AM
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Re: +EV or Gamboool??
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] (Data is from 15,000 $25NL Party Full Ring Hands.) [/ QUOTE ] Because of sample size issues the data you have produced and the conclusions you draw from it are approximately worthless. [/ QUOTE ] Opinion polls predict elections involving millions of votes with a sample of only a couple thousand. I found 404 instances of PF AI raises and 279 PF AI callers where the cards were shown. I acknowledge that the sample isn't perfect - not only is it a bit small, it also includes only hands that went to Showdown or were not mucked by the winner. If you have more or better data, I'd love to see it. If you'd like to see my spreadsheet, PM me and I'll email it to you. I'm more than happy to have a constructive discussion. I'm genuinely curious to find out the EV on these PF pushes.
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#13
05-08-2006, 06:33 AM
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Re: +EV or Gamboool??
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I'd suggest that even a 150k hand sample is too small to draw solid conclusions from and you need waaaaaaaaaaay more than that. [/ QUOTE ] Nonsense. The size of the sample needed does not grow with the size of the population. This is basic. The SD of the equity AK has against one hand in the range TT+, AQ+ is about 18%. That's not the exact range, but I'd guess the SD isn't far off. So, after n heads-up AKo confrontations sampled, the SD is roughly 18%/sqrt(n). A few hundred AKo hands will drive the SD down to about 1%. This looks like a good push to me.
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#14
05-08-2006, 06:47 AM
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Re: +EV or Gamboool??
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The only time that going against 2 opponents is better than one is if they both have lower PP or they share cards, [/ QUOTE ] No. AK is a favorite in most 3-way pots without KK, AA, or another AK. AK is about even against someone who has either QJs or 99, but AK is a clear favorite (winning more than 1/3) in a 3-way pot against 99 and QJs.
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#15
05-08-2006, 06:58 AM
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Re: +EV or Gamboool??
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The only time that going against 2 opponents is better than one is if they both have lower PP or they share cards, [/ QUOTE ] No. AK is a favorite in most 3-way pots without KK, AA, or another AK. AK is about even against someone who has either QJs or 99, but AK is a clear favorite (winning more than 1/3) in a 3-way pot against 99 and QJs. [/ QUOTE ] Good point. But it's a small advantage compared to the deep trouble that you're in if either has KK or AA. And, again, I found that the raiser has AA /KK 15% of the time and the caller has it 24%. This makes you a 75-90% dog 1/3rd of the time. I keep bringing up the numbers because I also, intuitively, want to push here. I just can't see how it can be +EV.
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#16
05-08-2006, 07:00 AM
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Re: +EV or Gamboool??
I think this should be good. Most of the time you get button to fold and get a show down with great odds. Of course, unless you have detected button being a nit. regards, dardo
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#18
05-08-2006, 07:37 AM
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Re: +EV or Gamboool??
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does anyone flat call and seea flop here, or is that worse than caling or folding? [/ QUOTE ] I think the only time this works out better is if BTN has AA/KK and just called to get more money in. Then you get away from your dominated hand when the flop misses you. But all other times, you give BTN a big opportunity to outplay you with his 88 on the flop. If you hit, he gets away easily. If you miss, well, your c-bet is basically for your stack. And if he hits his set you're toast. Pushing takes position out of the equation, and you see all five cards.
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#19
05-08-2006, 10:11 AM
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Re: +EV or Gamboool??
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And, again, I found that the raiser has AA /KK 15% of the time and the caller has it 24%. This makes you a 75-90% dog 1/3rd of the time. [/ QUOTE ] There's a KEY piece of the equation that your general search is ignoring: the original pusher was a short stack who was on tilt, and the caller KNOWS that the short stack was on tilt. That REALLY changes the equation around, and it's the basis for the play AJ made. Overall population averages can go out the window when you've got more information to play with, which we do here. This play wasn't made based on how frequently AKo stands up against a random all-in with a caller; it was made based on how frequently AKo stands up against THIS all-in with THIS caller.
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