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#23
05-04-2006, 05:22 PM
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Re: I forgot to mention: FREE MONEY
I just wanted to follow up; Yvel isnt a bad play at all, a lot of people are putting action on him. Im not actually putting money on this fight but the volume of people making small plays on Yvel makes me think youre on the right track here.
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#25
05-05-2006, 12:21 AM
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re: pride lines
i get nervous when my picks coincide with yours -- the first two reccomendations i saw you post with much enthusiasm turned out to be asskickery's for the other side :-). no offense! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
my picks if anyone cares: i got aleks at +135. i think this was the best bet available when the lines on pinnacle opened (or at least, i thought at the time). i would think aleks is good value up till about -150. however, i dont sportsbet on anything but mma and i'm not an action junkie -- i only bet on lines that i feel are really off, so i dont really think to myself "is this 10 points worth of value". i got kohsaka at +650. i was consdiering him at betcris for 475, and when the 650 was posted on pinnacle i took it. i wish i bet more in retrospect. however, i don't know how much value this line has at like +400 or so. kohsaka is old, and keep in mind mark hunt has been in mma a while since yoshida (and also took the fight against wanderlei on short notice, so he didnt necessarily know his next fight would be against a striker). it's entireluy possible he's worked a lot on his ground. this would be a very easy bet if say, you watched mark hunt train for 3 hours and drew your conclusions. if he didn't train any ground until he found out he was fighting kohsaka, i'd bet my first born all the way down to +300. if he has been training for a while, i'd get nervous at +500. i took crocop at -550. he's definitely going to kick minowas ass. zuluzinho is not a positive bet in my opinion. he's a live underdog against someone with flaws. nogueira is superhuman and cannot be bested by anyone but another superhuman. you are going on the assumption no one is a 12 to 1 dog in mma, let alone a big [censored] dude. well, fedor knocked his ass out in 12 seconds and nogueira's has some slick boxing standup. i also think you are way overestimating overeem/underestimating werdum. overeem is a very tall man used to fighting in 185lb class. his defacto height advantage is worth noting, but now he's fighting heavier guys and werdum is the asme height as him (6'5 or so). i was actually planning to take werdum at even money, but since he opened as a pretty decent fav and has moved to a dog, i'm going to wait the line and see if i can get a better deal. im staying away from yvel/zentsov because both of them are flaky. im staying away from nogueira/zulzinho because the max bet at those odds yields like $40 and there's something in my head that wont let me risk an amount of money that matters vs. an amount of money ill find in my couch cushion. im not betting on fujita or james thompson because james thompson sucks and fujita hasn't been remarkable enough for me to memorize his name and what he looks like aside from the other asians and i dont bet on people i dont know. im not betting on yoshida - nishijima because i hate yoshida but i'm not retarded enough to bet on a pro boxer against a judoka.
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#26
05-05-2006, 12:38 AM
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Re: re: pride lines
ive got about 1400$ on tonights fights, 25$ of which is on zulu, so that gives you an idea of how level of commitment on that bet. basically im betting on the gods infinite appetite to shock us on that one.
werdum/overeem, there is plenty to be debated there, i will never argue that a bet on werdum is wasted. i believe that since overeem stopped cutting weight, he is officially in his element. the action i put on him is based on my prediction that he will be top 5 HW within 12 months. im glad you got action on kohsaka, this is potentially a very hot opportunity to make money. hunt vs *any* striker on the planet will end with hunts hand raised, but hunt is really badly prepared for a ground war, both in terms of sub defense and (much more importantly) gas. im totally with you on aleks, but lets not forget that a *lot* of people are expecting a one sided victory for barnett. i got my money on aleks and my fingers crossed. my apologies for the one sided ass kickery picks haha, which fights are we talking about?
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#27
05-05-2006, 03:10 AM
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Re: re: pride lines
yeah i dunno. i have a friend who is for barnett as well and i just don't see it. he looks like an [censored] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].
a fight that comes to mind you were behind was rob macdonald vs jason lambert, there was one other but it slips my mind. doesn't matter, anyway. i hammered the [censored] out of chalangov and koscheck kicked his ass, so it shows how much i know as well. in my opinion the best bet one could make is nogueira to win at +385. i made the bet on betcris, then just now noticed they are no longer taking action. if you can find nogueira to win at +300 or better i'd highly suggest taking it. i think he's maybe even money or maybe +150 to win with fedor not in the field, and if fedor enters (hand heals, wants to fight with his brother in the tournament, etc) they won't fight until the finals, most likely, and you can arbitrage.
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#29
05-05-2006, 08:07 AM
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SPOILERS: RESULTS
Lets get down to it:
Roman Zentsov vs Gilbert Yvel Roman Zentsov -230 Gilbert Yvel +210 Prediction: Zentsov by punching Yvel in the face really, really hard. This fight must be a favor to the ref Yvel decked last year. Result: As predicted. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Zuluzinho Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -1500 Zuluzinho +1200 Prediction: Put 25$ on Zulu, this actually has a reasonable chance of being an upset. Reality: Zulu scrapped *hard* for like 15 seconds before he got demolished by the #2 ranked HW in the world. It was a good 15 seconds tho, I still believe in Zulu. Fabricio Werdum vs Alistair Overeem Fabricio Werdum -108 Alistair Overeem -102 Prediction: Overeem has Werdum dominated on his feet, on his back, on land, on sea, on the fuxin moon. Reality: I was right for like, 5 minutes, then Werdum demonstrated that in general, Overeems gas is for sh!t, and bjj olympiads generally dont suffer from that issue. Werdum 2nd round sub. Goddamnit. Kazuyuki Fujita vs James Thompson Kazuyuki Fujita -330 James Thompson +300 Prediction: Fujita is a safe bet but the odds are conservative. If youre looking for safety at the expense of a high yield ROI, pick Fujita. Result: As predicted, but jesus christ I almost had a stroke when I saw how well James was fighting. Mirko Filipovic vs Ikuhisa Minowa Mirko Filipovic -550 Ikuhisa Minowa +500 Prediction: Mirko is going to decimate Minowa, unless he gets supremely overconfident and ends up in Minowa's guard, at which point you can expect Minowa to spin out and sink in a kneebar. Reality: As predicted. Josh Barnett vs Aleksander Emelianenko Josh Barnett -117 Aleksander Emelianenko +107 Prediction: I got money on Aleks, his style is pure toxin to someone like Barnett who will operate on the assumption that he can weather blows if he can close distance fast enough to make them ineffective en route to a takedown. Bad plan with Aleks. 1st rd KO. Reality: Goddamnit yet ANOTHER one of my picks does EXACTLY what I expect for one round, then gasses and gets taken into the food chain. Barnett just hung in there and solved Aleks on the ground. Hidehiko Yoshida vs Yosuke Nishijima Hidehiko Yoshida -770 Yosuke Nishijima +700 Prediction: Potential upset; Yosh crumbles when he gets socked in the puss, and Nishijima is very, very good at socking people in the puss. I got 50$ on Nishijima, and at +700, why not? Still and all, expect Yoshida to nail a takedown and finish this on the ground quickly. Reality: Yoshida nailed a takedown and finished this on the ground quickly. Mark Hunt vs Tsuyoshi Kohsaka Mark Hunt -850 Tsuyoshi Kohsaka +770 Prediction: I got 150$ on Koshaka. A dude I know maxed out 3 sportsbooks on him. Why? Koshaka *invented* GnP for all practical purposes. Look for him to take Hunt down, keep Hunt down, and eek out an astoundingly shocking decision. Reality: Koshaka came within a c*nthair of subbing Hunt in rd1, then basically went insane and tried to get KO'd, successfully may I add. BONZAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII. Consider me a proud member of the Koshaka bandwagon, that dude blew my mind. Final score: 50/50. Even in public school, thats an F. I managed to break even by stacking up on Mirko, Fujita, and a small wager on Zen to cover the bets placed on dogs, but Im still pretty bummed that none of the money shots came through, especially since all three of the big ones came so damned close to sealing the deal. Lessons learned: Gas/cardio wins fights no matter how dominant a lesser conditioned athlete is in the first round if he cant close the deal. I should have known Overeem wasnt going to miraculously discover a gas tank when he stopped cutting weight, nuff respect to those who realized Werdum was as tough as he is. As for Aleks v Josh, I take my hat off to Josh's chin. Aleks came very, very close to ending this with an absolutely devestating first round assault but just couldnt find the energy to protect himself in the second. Josh illustrated that experience and endurance will kick bad conditionings ass every time, pretty much.
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#30
05-05-2006, 09:16 AM
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Re: SPOILERS: RESULTS
So did Koshaka lose?
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