(2/4) AKo: Do I bet this flop?

[gopnik]

Please, don't just say "yes" or "no", give an explanation.


Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero...???

[cassady]

I generally check this flop.

Most low limit hold em players will either passively call, so you have no fold equity in the bet, or raise with top pair, making you pay two bets to see the next card.

Also, because this flop is Q T 2, you are a lot less likely to be concerned with trying to clean up outs from players who have middle or low pair and an ace kicker or king kicker who could 2-pair when you make your top pair on later streets. Because of this concern flops like 6 8 9 might merrit a bet in this situation, even though you don't have a inside straight draw to go with your overcards.

[jwalk]

Personally, I would check this flop you're in early position a single bet will not protect your hand, The reasons for betting a hand like yours would be to eliminate people which is very unlikely or to see a free card which is not very likely in the position you're in. Other than that I cannot see anything justified reason for betting here

Sidenote:
I would however bet a hand like this on the button to see if I can get to see the turn and the river for as cheap as possible, Anyone else think this is a decent play in a spot like this?

[n.s.]

I vote bet here. As cassady says, you don't aren't likely to be able to clean any outs, but that also means that your outs are probably clean already. With 10 outs, you can bet for value if you think you'll get as few as 2 callers.

Add to that the small chance that your hand is best and the fact that a bet here might get you more action if an A comes (people will be less likely to put you on AK) and I think betting is right, despite being OOP. I would probably check the turn, though, if a blank comes and there is more than 1 caller.

[Harv72b]

[grunch]
The pot is big enough that anyone with so much as a gutshot, let alone a flopped pair, can call your bet. So a bet really doesn't do anything for you unless you're at a table full of fold-happy weak/tighties. You might get someone to fold an underpair, but you're going to take the pot down with your flop bet pretty much never, and you probably don't have enough equity to bet for value.

You absolutely have the odds to call a bet, even two cold here; the pot is fairly large, you have 4 outs to the nuts, and your pair outs may well be good even facing a bet and a raise. So I check here, with the intention of calling up to two bets.
[/grunch]

[cassady]

[ QUOTE ]
I vote bet here. As cassady says, you don't aren't likely to be able to clean any outs, but that also means that your outs are probably clean already. With 10 outs, you can bet for value if you think you'll get as few as 2 callers.


[/ QUOTE ]

Respectfully, I must disagree. Saying there aren't outs you can sucessfully clean does not mean that all your outs ARE clean.

If your overcards hit, you have to contend with the possible straight (from AJ, KJ) as well as the possibility of A10, KQ, Q10 or an unlikely limped AQ making a two pair. I'd call it 8 outs here at best, probably more like 7.

At 10-1 pot odds, you aren't going to fold any of the above hands. Hell, at a low limit game, even without the pot laying those kinds of odds, you probably won't fold those hands.

As for the value bet, I think you have less equity here than you think.

[cassady]

Okay, I just ran the problem on Pokerstove. Assigning a range to the other opponents of any two suited cards, any pair, or any two broadway cards, you have just under 22% equity here.

[n.s.]

[ QUOTE ]
Respectfully, I must disagree. Saying there aren't outs you can sucessfully clean does not mean that all your outs ARE clean.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yep, good point.

[ QUOTE ]
As for the value bet, I think you have less equity here than you think.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, thinking about it more, you are probably right. I guess it really comes down to how often you can buy the pot off of a small PP.

[fishyak]

I rarely disagree with Harv. And I don't think that checking this one is a big mistake. But I am going to make a case for betting this flop as a better overall line of play for the whole hand.

I would bet this one - not for flop play, but to set up turn options and to make my hand harder to read. I agree that betting out the flop does not get anyone out, yet. But when I also bet the turn, now I have shown consistent strength that some might react to by folding. (How strong and tight is your table image at this point?) At worst, I have set up a good semi-bluff.

And suppose I get my card on the turn, the T, after I did not bet the flop. Is anyone going to call my bet then? While I hope so, I would think that most opponents would run for the hills as my stop and start action just shouts AK. Also, even if I hit A or K on the turn, I have made it harder to read my hand by consistently betting. Did I raise a smaller pocket pair or do I really have it? The equity analysis provided showed that the value bet factor was a reasonably close call. I say keep in control, bet out.

[Bruce D]

Bet. You may well have the best hand. You don't want anyone to collect a free card to open up a draw, or even pair up on you. A J will win you this most times, and an A or a K will leave you vulnerable to another draw to someone holding a K or an A respectfully. If the turn comes anything but a club, someone could have a flush draw now. Make them pay. Reasses if you get raised. Call and reevaluate on the turn. The number of callers I get on this determines my action on the turn. UI, one caller, I bet out on the turn. UI all calling the flop bet, check the turn and reevaluate.