33 hand on 50NL

[kslghost]

3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on a board of

2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet 2 into a 2 dollar pot in first position, and was raised to 7 total.

Should I just dump this? It's temping to chase, but I'm guessing its pretty wrong. Villain is 40/10, only 40 hands of observation.

[ticks]

Stacks?

Assuming 100bbs I'd push.
Your only real worry is a made flush.

[Yaboosh]

No, you are pretty worried about any overpair with a heart, any two overcards with a heart, made flushes, made straights, sets....


Your outs are super dirty. You haven't given much information, but I let this go assuming normal 100bb stacks.


Edit: When your best case scenario is him having overcards with a heart gives you a 60/40 shot at winning it, you have to be damn sure he is folding a big percentage of the time for you to put the stack in on this hand. I don't see him doing this here.

[ticks]

[ QUOTE ]
No, you are pretty worried about any overpair with a heart, any two overcards with a heart, made flushes, made straights, sets....

[/ QUOTE ]

Vs overpair w heart: 8 outs + some FE
Vs overpair no heart: 17 outs (i.e. we are ahead)
Vs overcards we are ahead and want a call.
Vs straight no heart: 9 outs
Vs set we are in bad shape, but far from dead.
Heck, we even have one or two outs vs the made flush [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

To me the glass is half full.

[kslghost]

I dumped it in fear I was only with two real outs, with 6 dirty ones. Or something like that.

[beset]

Without further evidence I doubt he folds enough to make pushing +EV. FWIW, I don't think you seen an overpair with no heart here very often. There isn't some rule in the Book of SSNL that says you have to push everytime you have a SFD [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]