2/4 AK faces turn raise on AKQ flop from UTG PFRer

[TripleH68]

Villain capping preflop with AQo is not the best considering your likely 3-betting range...unless he feels he can push you around postflop.

[wwright7]

I agree with your analysis TripleH. I think you played this hand the best way you could Babar. Not that many people would make an OOP cap pre-flop with only AQ. This was about the worst (best for you) hand you could be up against, given the action.

[Dromar]

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If an A or a K comes, you probably have the nuts. I don't see the villian as having flopped a straight. The best case scenario is a slowplayed AK/AQ/KQ.

My guess is that without some sort of read, the safest thing to do is to call the turn raise and call the river when he bets. Course, if an A or K slides off, you can raise it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
(right?)


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If an A rivers, you do have the nuts. So it's an easy river raise in that situation. If a K comes off, you've got the second nuts (behind AA), and that's statistically unlikely, so I'd probably raise if a K came off too.
As the situation stands, the pot is pretty big, and so is your hand. He's put some fear into you with his line, but I think you've got to call down given the size of the pot and the fact that you're not necessarily beat, even though all you have going for you is beating AQ, KQ (pretty unlikely), or some random bluff with JJ or TT, and splitting with AK.

Conclusion: I'm not letting top two go when it's two bets to see a showdown, especially if a river A or K gives me a lock or near lock.

[fishyak]

Others have done the math, let't talk the psychology from the Villian's perspective. Just as you knew nothing about him, he knew nothing about you. Your raise post-flop may help him confirm that he might be dominated AQ to AK. Does he raise or fold? The check-raise was a good way, possibly the best way to rattle your cage and test the liklihood of his being dominated while playing aggressively. The c/r worked, to a point, it caused a you a serious WTF moment. Had you 3 bet, a real TAG could safely fold a good hand at that point. But you didn't 3 bet. So he does not have enough info. to fold, either. Absent an A, K, or Q on the river, the river will be quiet with neither side in a position to raise.

You had to worry about a slow played set after the c/r, so calling down is all you can do. And it only costs you both 1 more bet to see what you each have.

And that's what happened.

[TheHip41]

I'd call down once c/r, and raise/cap a river A, and raise call a river K

On a side note, why are you raising this flop?

Against a good player, you are either drawing dead, AA
drawing to 2 outs, KK,
drawing to 4 outs QQ

Or he has a gutshot.

There is just no way raising this flop is a good idea. Yes, you flopped a pretty looking hand, but you are probably going to be losing whenever he plays back at you.

If the flop ia AKQ, and the villian has 88 or 99, by raising the flop, you stop him from bluffing, bad.

If he has you stroked, you get 3bet, or c/r on the turn, bad

If he has a gutshot, you gain 1 sb on the flop. But by raising the flop, he's probably not seeing a showdown.

If you just call/call/call, you win more when he has JJ/TT, 2.5BB as opposed to 2.

You lose less when stroked, AA/KK/QQ
and you gain more when he just keeps betting his 99.