Uhhh, what just happend here? $100 NL 6M

[Dopey]

Confusing situtation, it is a little hard to put villian on a hand given the way it played out but its hard to find anything you beat. I would rule out AA and KK in most cases given the pre UTG check/call on his post. AK is a possibility but probably equal unlikely given the pre check/call and the turn call.

Id have to think your up against a made flush the majority of the time. I wouldnt rule out 22 here either. But MUBS type thinking has crept into my game a little recently.

The only other hand I can really see is a medium ace that is trying to raise you off the chop, and that would be an interesting play given you line represents a big ace alot and AK is certainly well within your range. Given that your most likely at best chopping I think you have to lay this down without a read. Until youve seen villian capable of the raise with a bluff or a K or a chopping hand in this type of situation I think calling is spewing even when getting 4.25-1.

That said I still call here way more than I know I should.

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[xwillience]

Well he doesnt call that turn unless he a) thinks yoru full of [censored] or b) has a made hand. I do think AA/KK/AK is very much in his hand range though. Being new to the table he may very well not be trying to establish a maniac image by raising right away.

The turn call could also be a flush draw i guess.

[Dopey]

Xwill,

I kinda understand what your saying but I dont know if I agree. Even a slight read would sway things alot.

The problem I have with villian having AA or KK is I still fail to understand what people could be thinking limp/calling in a unknown game with AA or KK. It happens but Im going to pay it off alot the first time they catch me when they do it because it is fairly uncommon.

AK is more understandable, and probably more likely than I first gave it credit for. From villains perspective Hero's hand should look like a big ace on the turn, and Im going to expect a raise to get value more often. But if he's limping AK then I can see a passive player calling the turn. So I'll agree AK can be in his range but I still question how likely it is.

As for why villian calls the turn, I agree with what you have said for the most part. I think a flush draw is very possible holding with the turn call, given that I think the implied odds are definately there given the board. So if villian puts hero on an ace the call isn't that bad.

The other issue is what the villian thinks is a made hand here. Because a made hand worth the call to alot of people is going to be an ace (any ace). When the river comes I still think the villian can have a naked ace (AJ, AT, A9) a fair amount of the time with the min raise. The problem for the hero is the odds he's getting, while the pot odds are 4.25-1, he's really only getting 1.5-1 if he thinks the worst hand the villian is likely to have is a chopping Ace.

If the flush draw doesn't complete I think a call is alot closer but the added possibility of the flush I don't think a call is right.

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

** As per my location, Im a NL newbie so it is possible Im way off base here. **

[Robert A.]

River bet is fine, cuz a lot of fish at these stakes will call witn a weak ace, but fold to his reraise - he's either got AK (unlikely), a 3 or he rivered a flush (most likely).

[S0meGuy]

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But MUBS type thinking has crept into my game a little recently.


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What is that? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

S0meGuy

[roxtar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But MUBS type thinking has crept into my game a little recently.


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What is that? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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MUBS = Monsters Under The Bed Syndrome.

[Dan Bitel]

At the table I call here 100%

At the table I lose here 100%

[matrix]

I gotta stop doing this calling min-raises on the river thing as well....

How many times in your poker career have you called a min-raise on the river without holding the absolute nuts and won the hand... ?




me - er not many...

[AncientPC]

Instant fold. You're pb'ing twice and he's raising you, TPTK is no good here.

[Spy Dog]

Don't raise preflop if you aren't prepared to C-bet HU on this flop. You risk giving free cards in a nice pot and also open yourself up to being pushed off the best hand.

What is your plan if he bets $10 on this flop?