NBA Trend plays

[Howling]

Deep in another thread I mentioned this type of play, but I will make a new thread about it here.

I didn't make up this play, it has been around for years, and when I first learned of it, the play was coming in close to 70% of the time.

The play is, bet the team coming home for game 3 when they have gone 0-2 to start the series.

Last night Sac. covered, (and won) getting 2 points. I had them as a 2 unit play.

Denver covered laying 5 prior to that, though I didnt trust them and had a 1 unit play on the money line (-220).

The Bulls line went from -1 to plus 1 as the money came in on Miami. I had the Bulls as a 3 unit play. As I watched the games tip off, I said to one of my buddies watching the game, I wish I could sell 10 points and get like 7-1 Bulls -9. Bulls blow out Miami.

It is hard to bet the ugly looking team after they have gotten blown out two games in a row. "Series over", "sweep", "they can't win a game" are all the common sayings you hear.

Yet time and time again the dog comes out all fired up in game three. They are home, and they have been embarrassed enough. They don't want to go down without a fight, and their intensity is at the max.

The team up 2-0 can't match their intensity. They are in control, they know they are the better team, and they have a hard time getting 'up' for this type of game. You'd think they'd want to go 4-0 and rest for the future rounds, but it takes too much energy to meet that 3rd game demand.

Dallas at Memphis: Line even.
Dallas just blew out the Griz two games in a row. Memphis is 0-10 in it's playoff history. They have gotten swept two years in a row. So, what's going on, Vegas is handing out free money today on Dallas?

Memphis (0) 2 unit play.


Detroit at Milwaukee: Line Mem. +6

Same thoery, Pistons are rolling, favored to win it all by many. The Bucks aren't going to stop them, but they don't have to. They only have to lose by 5.

Bucks +6, 2 unit play.

[ravensfan]

Nice post Howling... I'm not sure about the Pistons - they seem to keep their intensity pretty well consistent, but i agree on Memphis.
Do you have any figues on 1) what happens in game 4 when the home team wins in this spot/
2) what happens with the totals in Game 3? (or does that usually depend on the style of the home team that covers? ie. a defensive team plays harder and has better d - sacramento, and the offensive team plays better and shoots the lights out - chicago?)

[Howling]

After you get past the 0-2 spot, the answer is: it depends. I haven't handicapped the totals, and if I did, you'd want to bet the other way.

Generally speaking, I root for the team down 2 games to not only cover but win game three. Now the better team wakes up, and there is a lot more incentive to win game 4. Losing game 4 means another road trip, and risks the entire series as well.

Not only was I rooting on Sac., I did a (mental) backflip when that last lay up went...up...over...Duncan...bobbled...teetered...a nd went in!!! My personal view is that San Antonio will take care of business in a large way in game 4.

While the 0-2 trend is the strongest, I will look to bet the games this way,

Game 1 Home Fav

Game 2 Away Dog hoping for a cover and a loss. (Though I bet Dallas twice big on the money line.)

Game 3 Hopefully we've got the 0-2 spot here.

Game 4 The Away team usually spotting a couple (0-6) of points.

This works best with a mismatch in teams, not with a series that could go wither way. These are trend plays only, and if someone wanted to come up with solid reasons to buck the trend I wouldn't argue. Nothing covers 100%.

Be careful out there.

Good luck.

[Howling]

NJ -2 One unit.

[Howling]

Bucks roll, 1-0
NJ rolls, 2-0
Griz roll---for 47 min and 40 sec. sigh.

Days results 2-1 +.80 unit(s)