AA river fold

ggbman · #1 04-29-2006, 12:06 AM

I only have 72 hands on villian... with an average of 5. something people at the table he is about 48/15/1.15

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 4 folds, MP3 calls, 4 folds.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

Andrew Karpinski · #2 04-29-2006, 01:15 AM

KQ is villians likeliest holdings. Other possible contenders of course, 555, 333.

Are you check calling or check raising a 3 or a 5?

BabyJesus · #3 04-29-2006, 01:59 AM

I think it's good but I would lean towards paying off the river if you didn't have the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

NLSoldier · #4 04-29-2006, 02:32 AM

wow I hate your turn check.

newhizzle · #5 04-29-2006, 04:44 AM

i dont like it, you dont have much of a read on villain, but his stats suggest that he is a lagtard and your getting almost 12 to 1, i really think you have to pay off here, guys like this make stupid spew plays all the time, i think you are ahead here way more often than you need to make a call profitable

ggbman · #6 04-29-2006, 05:00 AM

My main problem is, what is he drawing with here? This was a drawless flop, and he raised it. A 1.15 Aggrressiong factor is quite low for these games. When i c/r the turn, it really looks like i have AK. Guys with those stats never raise the flop with TJ and then 3 bet the turn. I obviously it's tempting to initially call getting 12 to 1, but what am i ahead of 8.5% of the time? I can't see him ever having played AK, TJ, AQ, pr really any hand worse than one pair liek this. I literally think i am behind 98-99% of the time here.

Josh. · #7 04-29-2006, 05:06 AM

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My main problem is, what is he drawing with here? This was a drawless flop, and he raised it. A 1.15 Aggrressiong factor is quite low for these games. When i c/r the turn, it really looks like i have AK. Guys with those stats never raise the flop with TJ and then 3 bet the turn. I obviously it's tempting to initially call getting 12 to 1, but what am i ahead of 8.5% of the time? I can't see him ever having played AK, TJ, AQ, pr really any hand worse than one pair liek this. I literally think i am behind 98-99% of the time here.

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yeah, he should have you beat. but people get out of line, overplay, etc all the time and this guy is more or less unknown aside from the fact that he's way too loose which means he's likely to be awful and spewy

Josh. · #8 04-29-2006, 05:09 AM

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wow I hate your turn check.

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i'm kind of torn. on one hand, he's going to miss a bet against small pairs which i think he has a lot. also, this is going to induce a bet-fold from a lot of hands. the checkraise here is always a big hand. on the other hand, he could be floating and the K is a nice card to feign weakness on and he will induce a bet a lot.

ggbman · #9 04-29-2006, 05:14 AM

Pretty much right on. I mean if there wasn't the potential for him to play the hand like a moron, i am behind 100% of the time here. However, since there is that possibility, i said i think i might be ahead 1-3% of the time when he just plays randomly, but the problem is his AF means he probably doesn't do it in this way. IMO, say that this river is a call is saying this guy can go psycho, despite a low AF more than 8.5% of the time on two different postflop streets.

Josh. · #10 04-29-2006, 05:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty much right on. I mean if there wasn't the potential for him to play the hand like a moron, i am behind 100% of the time here. However, since there is that possibility, i said i think i might be ahead 1-3% of the time when he just plays randomly, but the problem is his AF means he probably doesn't do it in this way. IMO, say that this river is a call is saying this guy can go psycho, despite a low AF more than 8.5% of the time on two different postflop streets.

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i actually missed that he raised the flop but i think my comments still apply for the most part

also his AF is worthless at this point and basically just an indication of the quality of cards he's been dealt so far