AA on a 3 flush, what's my turn action? (2/4 PP)

[Sirasoni]

Villain is somewhat unknown as far as stats on 2/4, but from previous experience with him on previous stakes, for the most part he is semi-loose and aggressive. He plays postflop well, and despite his looseness, is not a person that goes out of line (aka he knows when to fold).

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero...

What do you put him on after the flop cap? What's my plan of action on the turn? I know I cannot raise for a free showdown (if I wanted one), and seeing a 3-bet here would be very upsetting. If you put him on the flush draw, what types of hand combinations could he realistically be playing here? Considering that the Ad, Qd, and Jd are already accounted for.

Additionally, what is our plan of action on the river if:
A. A non-diamond falls
B. An ace falls
C. Q or J falls

What do you think he puts us on after a 3-bet preflop and flop? Does that affect how he plays his own hand?

[Nick Royale]

Just call the turn. The flop getting capped on such a draw-heavy board means you're beind more often than not (especially since you're holding the nut fd) and we don't like to get 3-bet.

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you put him on after the flop cap?

[/ QUOTE ]

Precious little that we currently beat, and not enough of a range that we've got enough equity to raise the turn. Easy call.

Pot'll be 10.5 on the river. I'm calling if the river is an A (probably not raising) or non-diamond 2 but other than that calling's going to be a difficult decision U/I. I'm sure I'd make the call but I have my doubts as to whether or not we'd be good one time in ten, maybe maybe not.

[Sirasoni]

Sorry if I made it a bit unclear in my original post, but folding turn was not one of the options I was considering. I felt it was a call/raise (with my own personal opinion on leaning towards a call), but it seems like I nullified it into call/fold by using that free showdown disclaimer.

But anyways, I found my first challenge with this hand to be assigning a range of hands where I beat and am beaten by. If I did that, I could probably decide if I am good one in ten times to make a call if a blank came, if an A, Q, or J came, etc. So I would be very interested in seeing people's hand range they think villain is likely to have.

[Sirasoni]

Bump, I would like to get more input on this if possible, since this also should have some educational merit. Thanks a lot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[MrWookie]

I agree w/ Eegah.

[rjacobs003]

Just a shot at this but I'm putting him on on AK or KK with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the mix?

[Str8Fish]

Range: 99+, AT, AQ, QJs, KTs... good?
Behind: 99 (3), JJ (3), QQ (3), QJs (3), KTs (4) = 16
Ahead: TT (6), KK (6), AT (8), AQ (6) = 26

25,036,624 games 22.500 secs 1,112,738 games/sec

Board: Qd 9d Jd 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 62.9366 % 62.01% 00.93% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 37.0634 % 36.14% 00.93% { 99+, AQs, ATs, KTs, QJs, AQo, ATo }

Seems like in that range you're ahead so I'd raise the turn, call a 3-bet.

Then
A. Non-diamond falls.. if 3-bet on the turn, c/c
B. An ace falls, raise, call 3-bet.
C. Q or J falls, [censored] myself and c/c

[sarsen]

[ QUOTE ]
Bump, I would like to get more input on this if possible, since this also should have some educational merit. Thanks a lot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], you're screwed. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Actually as Eegah says we're not ahead of much after the flop action. His range? AQ, JJ, 99, Maybe AK with the K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or QQ. If he had KK or QQ, I'd expect a cap but it's not completely out of the question. If he has K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] more power to him, but I'm not going to automatically think he's got that single hand.