9Ts in MP

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Grunch:

Well i would just call this flop, and see what turn card brings.

Im folding this one on the turn after the check/raise, unless i have some specific reads about villains turn play.
He is check/raising 2 players, usually that means he has the goods, unless... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Nick Royale]

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The presence of the caller has me concerned, so I don't want to raise the flop to have to fold to a turn check-raise by the caller in the middle.

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Why not?

1. If he check/raises the turn you're crushed.
2. I don't think he'll c/r the turn often, it seems to me you're looking for monsters under the bed.
3. Unless the flop caller raises the turn after you call the flop your line will still cost you more than raising the flop and folding to a turn c/r will.
4. Raising the flop will help you make a cheaper laydown if pfr has an overpair (I really don't think the pfr will often 3-bet the flop when Hero raises a protected pot with only overs, especially not in 0.25/0.5 but I might be wrong here).
5. We're ahead less often on the turn than on the flop when villain bets.

[Aaron W.]

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1. If he check/raises the turn you're crushed.

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If he's looking to raise the turn, he's looking to raise the turn regardless of what I do. I'll find out that I'm crushed for less money by letting him make his move on the turn without me having the lead -- which is to say, let him raise the PFR's bet instead.

Raise the flop + bet the turn + fold to a check-raise = 1.5 BB extra
Call the flop + fold to the turn raise = 0 BB extra

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2. I don't think he'll c/r the turn often, it seems to me you're looking for monsters under the bed.

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You could be right. The chance of him sitting on a 5 is small. However, unless he's a complete donk, he's calling with something on the flop, perhaps a bigger 9. Then I still don't like raising flop.

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3. Unless the flop caller raises the turn after you call the flop your line will still cost you more than raising the flop and folding to a turn c/r will.

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1 SB difference, but the way it plays out is completely different, which helps me to play better. I can choose not to raise the turn if I don't like what I see (an ace, for example, or a bet/raise from the other two).

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4. Raising the flop will help you make a cheaper laydown if pfr has an overpair (I really don't think the pfr will often 3-bet the flop when Hero raises a protected pot with only overs, especially not in 0.25/0.5 but I might be wrong here).

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Are you looking to fold?

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5. We're ahead less often on the turn than on the flop when villain bets.

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Perhaps, but perhaps not. I don't know the turn continuation bet frequency on paired boards. I tend to see lots of c-bets in short-handed pots.

[Nick Royale]

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Raise the flop + bet the turn + fold to a check-raise = 1.5 BB extra
Call the flop + fold to the turn raise = 0 BB extra

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You have a point here, the times raising saves us 1 SB will easily be compensated by this. We're probably saving money by taking your line when UTG has a monster.

But still, I don't think he's on a monster often. He's probably not limping with many 5s and 99/55 is obviously unlikely.


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You could be right. The chance of him sitting on a 5 is small. However, unless he's a complete donk, he's calling with something on the flop, perhaps a bigger 9.

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I don't think I'm underestimating villain when I say he'll often hold 88-66/87s/JTs/44 and hands as such often here.


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4. Raising the flop will help you make a cheaper laydown if pfr has an overpair (I really don't think the pfr will often 3-bet the flop when Hero raises a protected pot with only overs, especially not in 0.25/0.5 but I might be wrong here).

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Are you looking to fold?

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Yes.


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You could be right. The chance of him sitting on a 5 is small. However, unless he's a complete donk, he's calling with something on the flop, perhaps a bigger 9. Then I still don't like raising flop.


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If he holds a better 9 your line will definately cost us more than raising the flop, unless he's capable of folding it and we're ahead of pfr.


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5. We're ahead less often on the turn than on the flop when villain bets.

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Perhaps, but perhaps not. I don't know the turn continuation bet frequency on paired boards. I tend to see lots of c-bets in short-handed pots.

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He's definately betting the turn more often than the flop, even though I agree that he might bet often on the turn too with only overs. Without a read waiting to the turn might put us in a sitauation where we rarely have the best hand when we raise.


Note that what I questioned with your first post was the fact that you seemed to see the flop caller as a big threat. My initial thought was to call the flop and raise the turn, but I think it's close.