Top 2 on a monotone board facing a push. Deal....or No Deal?

CappyAA · #1 04-25-2006, 10:47 AM

Ok, no reads, and I probably shouldn't be playing at this point b/c I had just been stacked on 2 separate tables in the past 10 min and I'm tilting. Welcome to Full Tilt NL100!!!

I've been playing at this table for a few orbits. I don't have any meaningful stats on villain other than I've seen him cold-call a number of preflop raises. He seems loose preflop. No notes on his postflop play.

Effective stack - $105

Hero is in MP with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Preflop: UTG calls, Hero raises to $5, CO folds, Villain (Button) calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls

Flop: ($15.00) A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG checks, Hero bets $15.00, Villain raises all in to $100.00, UTG folds, Hero..........

I really didn't know what to do here. I mean his range could be anywhere from AA, KK, 66, QJd, AxQd, etc. What does everyone think here?

Mr. Sakuraba · #2 04-25-2006, 10:57 AM

First let me say that I've played with you on several occasions on FTP. Your a solid player, with a style similiar to mine. Sakuraba39 is my screename, i think we played together last night as a matter of fact.

Onto the hand. I think you have to call this. If he has the flush, he's playing it superwierd. If he did have it, he would slow way down and try to extract some value. He might have a single high diamond or even a lower two pair than you and be trying to shut you out from hitting the flush.

I think theres all kinds of stuff he could have here, but your ahead of a lot of it. If he does have diamonds, just spike another Ace and bust him [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Ra_ · #3 04-25-2006, 11:05 AM

I think you have to dump it, this is most likely a set or a small made flush that doesn want to see another diamond. If he cold calls alot here i wouldn't be suprised to see something like 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

I don't think most would play AxQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] like this.

Simplistic · #4 04-25-2006, 11:06 AM

i discount a flush. if you think he's got two pair or worse call.

CappyAA · #5 04-25-2006, 11:13 AM

Well I don't think I can discount anything here without any reads. I have a slight read that I have seen him cold call a few raises preflop, but that is not a very reliable read at this point. I just couldn't get out of my head at the time that this really might be a SA/WB type situation. My question is that does anyone think I'm slightly ahead enough times to make up for the times I'm way behind?

Simplistic · #6 04-25-2006, 11:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well I don't think I can discount anything here without any reads. I have a slight read that I have seen him cold call a few raises preflop, but that is not a very reliable read at this point. I just couldn't get out of my head at the time that this really might be a SA/WB type situation. My question is that does anyone think I'm slightly ahead enough times to make up for the times I'm way behind?

[/ QUOTE ]yuh huh. his betting pattern is wack enough that I think my top two is good enough to warrant a call.

Dan Bitel · #7 04-25-2006, 11:19 AM

meh, I could go either way here, i think that it doesnt make tooo much difference. I call tho

wallywojo · #8 04-25-2006, 11:31 AM

I think that the betting pattern seems odd. Isn't this one of those situations where you wait for a better spot and make your move. We could be looking at a four outer. I would pass this up until you have a better read what a super-overbet(new word) means from this player.

z28dreams · #9 04-25-2006, 11:38 AM

I fold here. I'd agree with cappy that this feels like a slightly ahead / way behind type of hand.

Also, unlike having a set, you have even fewer outs to help you fill up.

I'd put him on 66 or a small made flush (9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]).

It also seems that it is WAY more unlikely for him to have a single high diamond, because the A and K are already on the board. What do you people think this guy called with? Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ? I suppose AxQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and KxQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] are possible as well.

c_strong · #10 04-25-2006, 11:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to dump it, this is most likely a set or a small made flush that doesn want to see another diamond.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this - although I don't know if I could fold in real life. A PSR would be to $60, leaving him $40 behind in a $135 pot on the turn, so a push isn't all that weird given the pot size. I could see 66 or two smallish diamonds playing this way.