Checking my ranges - a MLG style hand post...

[ThrillFactor]

13 left in last night's Party $11 $20K Guaranteed

I've been at table 1 since there were 40 left and villian has been on my immediate left for the entire time. He's had a very healthy stack the whole time and has managed to increase it a couple hundred K (about 5 BB by the time we get to the hand in question). Nothing really notable about his play, seems solid and patient, steals a few blinds, maybe shown down 1 or 3 hands. Nothing memorable.

He's seen my stack dwindle to about 175K until with about 27 or so players left and 9BBs I call 2 allins with JJ and triple up.

With 21 or 22 left he's seen me resteal over a MP raiser, then a half dozen hands later push all-in over the same raiser from the SB with JJ. Raiser thinks forever then calls with AK but my hooks hold up.

A couple of orbits later with about 18 or so left it's folded to me in the SB with KK and I 2.5x villian's BB. He calls but then gives it up on the flop. My stack is now about 125% of his.

Over the next few orbits I attempt 2 steals with trash and I have to fold both to pushes. Bleh.

Then with 13 left, I'm on the button with A8o and UTG shorty open pushes for 4.5BBs. I call, get shown KJ, flop trip aces, then lose to runner runner QT. Double bleh.

5 hands later, the hand in question.

Hero (530K)
Villian (800K)

Blinds 20K/40K

Hero is UTG with JJ and raises to 80K
Villian insta-overpushes for 800K


Given my image, what is his range and what is my calling range.

Hint: I can't imagine him playing AA/KK this way, he seemed solid enough to try and get some value out of those. But maybe I'm kidding myself. He hasn't made a move like this since we've been together.

What u think?


Edit: If I win, I'll be 2nd in chips with 12 left. If I fold, I'm down to 450K but there will be 4 stacks slightly smaller than mine. I'm sure I could fold to the final table, though I wouldn't play it that way.

Payouts:

1st - $5K
2nd - $2.5K
3rd - $2K
4th - $1700
5th - $1350
6th - $1000
7th - $750
8th - $500
9th - $350
10th - $250
11th - 20th - $170

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero is UTG with JJ and raises to 80K
Villian insta-overpushes for 800K

Hint: I can't imagine him playing AA/KK this way

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm let me think <font color="white">looks like AK and I'd probably call this with tens/probably not nines but this also looks like a horrible bad beat post </font>

[cbiz]

open for 100k or 120k call the push.

[ThrillFactor]

Promise it's not a beat post. I'm really trying to check my thought processes here. Don't have a whole lot of experience this deep w/ final table ramifications and how that affects not only my play, but the play of my opponents too.

I think he's good enough to know that he has a ton of FE here.

My range below in white (no peaking until you decide on yours):

<font color="white"> Villian: QQ-99, possibly 88 and AK/AQ tho AQ could be debatable. </font>

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]
open for 100k or 120k

[/ QUOTE ]

75-90K was standard for the table



[ QUOTE ]
call the push.

[/ QUOTE ]

care to elaborate?

[JohnFR]

His range is 88-AA,AK,AQ, possibly some other big cards, you are way way way ahead of this range. You have to understand folding your way to the FT is teh suk. with 13 players left you should be pushing edges trying to get a stack to abuse the final table bubble, and the final table. If I can get the second biggest stack in the tourney I really really like my chances to abuse the FT bubble and build some serious chips and then I can play a solid SnG with the chip lead, with enough BB's for some play.

I call and it isn't even close

[cbiz]

you cant open for 75k, and for his range i think its slightly tighter than most since he is UTG+1 probably something like 99+,AQ+ making it a call.

[ThrillFactor]

That's what happens when you don't post much and then decide to try while playing sets of SNGs.


Obviously, this post may have generated A LOT more interest if I hadn't posted my hand! DUH!!!


Yes, of course JJ is a very easy call, and now I've gone and ruined the free-thinking part of the thread, so now I'll just have to ask direct questions.


UTG in this spot (7-handed), I open raise 88+, AT+, KQs, and maybe KQo and QJs if I'm feeling frisky. I raise all of them 80-90K.


Given my description of being fairly active AND considering that I had twice laid down to resteal pushes, I tend to think villian's range is going to widen.

BUT, considering we're in final table bubble territory, villian's range my tighten.

From the hour I spent with him, I would say that he's better than the average $10 player preflop.

So what's his range? I know that you can never completely discount AA/KK from his range, but I absolutely don't believe that he plays AA like this. He could conceivably hold KK and not want to risk a scary flop, but I have serious doubts as to that.

All told, on the spot I put him on QQ-99, possibly 88, and AK-AQ with AQ being debateable. Can anyone make an arguement for a looser range?

Given that, of my opening range, I call with TT+ and AK.
Am I too tight on my calling range?

Those were the real questions here before I managed to screw the pooch.


And again, for the record, common sense says it's an easy call and the math says it's $EV = +$400.

As my original title stated, I'm just checking my ranges.




Back to lurking...

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]
you cant open for 75k,

[/ QUOTE ]


Good catch. I really suck at posting [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Blinds had to have still been at 15/30K going to 40K very soon. So no, I didn't minraise UTG. Sorry for the confusion and editing the original post.