Interesting Bubble situation with AA!

[abuljooj]

Here's the situation. This hand happened during a monthly qualifier to Ultimate Bet's million Dollar Freeroll. The top 300 players got seats in the final. At this point there are 310 players left. i don't have the hand history to use a converter but this is essentially what happened.

Blinds 200-400

Hero (1370)
Villian (7500)

Hero is SB with AA
action is folded around to villian on the button who makes it 800.

What should hero's line be here? results in white:

<font color="white"> [Since i was the SB on this hand, i saw that i wouldn't have to post a blind for a whole round, and i could just fold pocket aces just in case i get unlucky and not double up. the real dilemma was trying to figure out if one or possibly two more rounds of play were going to be enough for 10 more people to bust out, and with me making the top 300.

result: I folded AA, and before i had to post another blind, the tourney was over and i got the seat in the final]

[pokerrod]

I would push
You have stack enough for 2 orbits and not sure 10 players elminate in this 20 hands.

[John Shiznit]

what position are u in out of 310.

i would think your way to short to fold considering alot of medium stacks are going to be folding alot

[bgoalie35]

I think you're too short to try to fold your way in. Push it and good luck. If you win this hand, you should be set.

[adanthar]

310 people left = ~31 tables = fold without a second thought.

[Black winter day]

That's why satellites isn't poker.
I don't think i could fold AA, since you are pretty short and the 2 rounds could not be enough.
But i would think a lot about this.
What was the starting stack?
Knowing your Q here would really help.

[Jourdain]

Jeez, I could never lay this one down pre-flop..

[seke2]

[ QUOTE ]
That's why satellites are a different type of poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Saying that sats aren't poker is ridiculous. Is five-card draw or seven-card stud or PLO not poker just because different hands are better and you have to make strategic adjustments based on the different relevant information than normal NLHE or whatever? Sats are just a type of poker that has strategic changes due to the payout structure.

Personally, I think I could fold AA here, but I'd really want to know roughly how many people were actually shorter-stacked than I was in making that decision. I don't think Q is relevant, but knowing how many other microstacks are in the field would be a consideration for me.

[rockin]

In a typical sat, the bubble can last a while, but in a freeroll, it's going to go pretty quick, good fold.

[bgoalie35]

[ QUOTE ]
310 people left = ~31 tables = fold without a second thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero can survive 2 orbits = 20 hands @ 31 tables = 620 hands and you need 10 people to go out. I see your point.