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#11
04-21-2006, 05:09 PM
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Re: Party 50/100: I\'m confused
[ QUOTE ]
I would understand it if it were heads up, or if he expects that MP would be more likely to bet it .... but he has to expect that if he checks, most of the time it's either checked through or I bet it. What's the point of facing MP with 2 cold on the flop? If either MP or I have good draws or a K, we're not going anywhere. Otherwise, he should have us drawing extremely thin if he has what he's representing. [/ QUOTE ] Steve, I think your analysis is interesting, but in this case, I don't think you have to look much past his stats and his likely holdings. His action is slightly strange, I admit, but he may want to make MP pay more for his flush draw, he may want you to pay more with his AA against your AK, he may have a monster, like KK, and remember after his check that its a big pot and theres a flush draw out there. Point is: he's got you beat, but you have outs. 
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#12
04-21-2006, 05:59 PM
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Re: Party 50/100: I\'m confused
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prepare to look at AK [/ QUOTE ] yeah but i wouldn't be completely surprised to see AQ. maybe if the raises were later to guarantee that he would cap with AQ. but that's what the check does. he missed the flop badly and he gets to see what everyone else does. if he checkraises often someone folds a smaller pair because he obviously has a big hand. i have done similar things though they never work
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#13
04-21-2006, 06:05 PM
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Re: Party 50/100: I\'m confused
[ QUOTE ]
Steve, This is one of those big pots/sure loser hands. I think there are only 2 or 3 conceivable hands that you have beat here 99, 88, AQs). Your pots odds are about 17:1 so a call here is justified in an effort to hit your 2-outer, considering implied odds and the small chance you're ahead. You have to fold to a turn bet if you don't hit. Your better play would have been to check fold the flop I'm afraid. [/ QUOTE ] Well if that is the case, then he should 3-bet the flop to take a free card on the turn.
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#14
04-21-2006, 07:08 PM
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Re: Party 50/100: I\'m confused
[ QUOTE ]
It feels like a big hand on the surface, but why wouldn't AA/KK/AK just bet out (or check-call if slowplaying) to trap the middle guy rather than check-raising to shut him out. It just didn't feel right throughout. [/ QUOTE ] Probably because he feels he will either get no action or tons of action from the guy caught in the middle. I think it looks like the guy has AA and wants action from AK.
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#15
04-21-2006, 07:37 PM
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Re: Party 50/100: I\'m confused
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I have a hard time folding when a "sound player" makes a play that doesn't make sense. To me it seems like he is trying to make you lay down QQ, so I have to put him on 99-JJ, slight possibilty of kqs. I will call him down. Granted I have only played ~1500 hands of 50-100 this month. [/ QUOTE ] Most of the hands you put him on beat us, why would we just call down?
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#17
04-21-2006, 11:18 PM
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Re: Party 50/100: I\'m confused
[ QUOTE ]
It feels like a big hand on the surface, but why wouldn't AA/KK/AK just bet out (or check-call if slowplaying) to trap the middle guy rather than check-raising to shut him out. It just didn't feel right throughout. [/ QUOTE ] Maybe he has a note on you that says "bets when checked to" and decided to protect his AA AK by check-rasing instead of offering the middle guy 13+:1? -Eric
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#18
04-21-2006, 11:22 PM
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Re: Party 50/100: I\'m confused
[ QUOTE ]
I have to put him on 99-JJ, slight possibilty of kqs. I will call him down. [/ QUOTE ] Terrible. If this is your read, calling down makes very little sense. Raise the turn to fold JJ and TT since you plan to put in 2 BB anyways. Ignoring that, this hand range has little basis in reality. Why would you include KQs (a dubious SB cao toi begin with) but not AK? How did you elliminate hands like AA and KK? -Eric
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#20
04-25-2006, 02:57 PM
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Re: Party 50/100: I\'m confused
[ QUOTE ]
SB caps pre, and checks flop. I'm already feeling the c/r... [/ QUOTE ] Its funny, sometimes i just know the guy will check raise and bet anyways....i call him down and he got trash. But sometimes u just know it he's gonna check raise
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