AKo hits flush K on turn - call down?

stonescar · #1 04-22-2006, 03:56 PM

UTG is 85/0/0,7 after 123 hands
Button is 67/8/2 only 24 hands

Should I just call down here, since he's betting on a flush card?

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, Button calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero ?

stonescar · #2 04-22-2006, 04:41 PM

Err.. the Subject line is unfortunate and misleading...
What I meant "AKo hits K on turn w/flush draw on table"

ImsaKidd · #3 04-22-2006, 05:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Should I just call down here, since he's betting on a flush card?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not thinking of raising, right? This guy is pretty passive. I would call down but i'm actually not a huge fan of it.

stonescar · #4 04-22-2006, 05:20 PM

Maybe you're right, but I have seen many players at this limit donking here with a pair and maybe a draw as a semibluff...

Ineedaride2 · #5 04-22-2006, 05:26 PM

I'd definitely call down. There's no telling what people like these have got.

stonescar · #6 04-23-2006, 05:11 AM

I've discussed this hand with some other limit players I know, and they all said raise it up. The chance of him betting his Kx is too big, especially on this limit, and if he has the flush you might as well find out on the turn.

What do you think of a raise/fold line here?

I constantly see players this limit donk turn with weak made hands, unaware of other board cards and/or previous action...

EDIT:
If he had the flush, wouldn't he check-raise the flop?
Also, if he has pair + FD wouldn't turnbet be standard?

If I'm putting in two bets (turn+ river), I might as well do it on turn. I need to punish a semibluff from UTG, and keep button from calling with outs.

I'm leaning more and more towards a raise/fold on turn.

brazilio · #7 04-23-2006, 05:52 AM

I'm raising this against a lot of opponents, especially because you can fold to the 3-bet.

Nfinity · #8 04-23-2006, 08:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising this against a lot of opponents, especially because you can fold to the 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ewww...

Which of these is not a genuine reason to raise this Turn?

A) For value, because you likely have the best hand.
B) Because you have a vulnerable made hand, and raising might fold out other players who have outs against you.
C) For Information.

Now, I'm not saying your wrong in your estimation that if the passive player 3-bets you on this board your hand is sunk. I'm just saying your thinking behind the plan can lead to some serious mistakes down the road.

Lets focus on what happens when we raise here, regarding UTG alone. If we raise and he 3-bets, like you said, our winning chances are pretty much gone and we shouldn't really invest any more in the hand. OK, so what happens when we raise and villian isn't holding a hand he is comfortable 3-betting(i.e. not the nuts) he will call and see the river. On the occasion that we make it to the River with the best hand, is villian really going to call us with his pair of 3's and broken flush draw. Not likely. Factor that in with the occasions that UTG catches a hand that beats you on the river, or already had one, and your raise is really only worth a fraction of a bet here.

Button is what makes the decision making process here difficult. On one hand, he could be drawing pretty slim to your TPTK, maybe even drawing dead. But on the other hand, if he has even 1 club, he has a 4 out draw against you. Hmmm. Does raising really change anything in this situation? I haven't played in a while so help me out. How often do players who play 67% of their first 24 hands fold a flush draw in a decent pot to a raise, even though they are being offered the correct odds to draw?

If you were almost certain that raising on the Turn might convince Button to make a mistake and fold a lot of club draws here, then raising would be an applicable strategy. Otherwise just call along. Use the likelihood that you will induce a bluff from UTG on the river with worse hands, and the possibility that Button will overcall with worse hands on the Turn and River to pad your bottom line and make up for all the times you call down vs. a flush.

Unfortunanly you have a tough river decision ahead of you...GOOD LUCK.

brazilio · #9 04-23-2006, 08:13 AM

Raising changes the hand significantly in my estimation. He'll have a draw here a lot and will fold the river UI. If I don't know he'll bet his busted draw on the river then I lost money for the times he misses. If the player behind us has the flush, he'll 3-bet and we're gone. If he has a one card of any strength he'll be forced to call 2. Almost any opponent can 3-bet a flush. I've got to take off so I'm just typing this [censored] out quickly but raising the turn is my default unless I know my opponent will put in 1BB on a busted draw on the river. I think you're overestimating the time you induce a bluff 3-way. Most players, even loose ones will just c/f. HU is far different, you can induce an ass of bluffs from a ton of players. Twopair/set hands that won't 3-bet are the only problem that I see, but I think him having a set is pretty far out there because he'd c/r, same with 2pr. I mean I don't have any stats for it, but guys just don't bluff 3-way that often. Or if they do, they have huge huge problems with their game and you've already got a read on them as a complete retard.

It's to our advantage if the button will call 2 with a club. I think you mistyped 14 out instead of 4 out draw, and who cares how strong his draw is? He'll never be 50/50 or better and if you're lucky he'll call the river with his pair (likely).