Indiana A5s hand - 3949373614

[Indiana]

[ QUOTE ]


Yeah, I know. I was just sayin' that maybe I reacted so strongly to the idea of pushing A5s because until recently I wouldn't even have seriously considered pushing the much stronger A9s.



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Just a little probability for those interested. This is what I think about when I look down and see a hand like A9 in early position. Against 9 other players at your table, the probability of Ax being outkicked by a better ace is:

x probability
K .022
Q .1077
J .1885
T .2496
9 .3358
8 .4027
7 .4653
6 .5236
5 .5778

This is why I fold these types of hands. With A5 I'm a pretty decent underdog to not run into a better ace, ESPECIALLY when somebody raises in front of me. Shoving into an open field with A9 is also very risky. I've got a 1/3 shot at running into a hand where I am going to be a 3:1 dog.

Indy

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Yeah, I know. I was just sayin' that maybe I reacted so strongly to the idea of pushing A5s because until recently I wouldn't even have seriously considered pushing the much stronger A9s.



[/ QUOTE ]
Just a little probability for those interested. This is what I think about when I look down and see a hand like A9 in early position. Against 9 other players at your table, the probability of Ax being outkicked by a better ace is:

x probability
K .022
Q .1077
J .1885
T .2496
9 .3358
8 .4027
7 .4653
6 .5236
5 .5778

This is why I fold these types of hands. With A5 I'm a pretty decent underdog to not run into a better ace, ESPECIALLY when somebody raises in front of me. Shoving into an open field with A9 is also very risky. I've got a 1/3 shot at running into a hand where I am going to be a 3:1 dog.

Indy

[/ QUOTE ]

I just realized that I forgot how to do probabilities like this.

Anyway, A5s has 36% equity against A6+. It is 41.5% against Ax. I think the Ace-domination thing is sometimes glossed over like some people do with "coinflips". Most coinflips are not 50/50, and most Ace v Ace hands are not 3:1.

What does this mean? I don't know. I grant that the raiser in this hand changes everything, so let's just put that aside for now.

However, "with A5 I'm a pretty decent underdog to not run into a better ace", when you have A6+ at 52%? I think you were looking at the A5 number when you wrote that. In addition, most players will fold some aces. A6o isn't calling your push 100% of the time.

[KampnagelKid]

I thought the same Phil, and I am still not convinced...

there is no reason for -EV moves but there is a reason for -cEV moves, namely if you otherwise need to make even more -cEV-moves very soon.

Then this should be -cEV but may be +EV...

omg, that sounds really retarded and especially opposite to pergesu "don't play 68s, better wait for calling out of the BB with a better hand" and in another post curtains-like: it is often much better to hope for a great hand in the next 2-3 hands than pushing a bad hand if you have no FE left.

Anyway, now I wrote it, heal my thinking please...