Super Tuesday Bubble Decision – to resteal or not?

[DonT77]

PP Super Tuesday $150+12, 1040 Players, 124 Remain, Pays Top 120

With blinds at 1000/2000, LAG on button (32VPIP/18PFR) raises 6400 of his 28K chips (LAG is capable of calling a resteal-push with ~22,A7,K9,etc.). Hero in SB has AJo with 26K in chips after posting the SB. BB has 16K after posting the BB.

What is hero's play here - reraise AI, stop-n-go, or easily fold into the money and play from there? Is this a good spot to try to pickup 9400 chips, or should I wait for a better opportunity once ITM?

For extra credit, what is your minimum pushing requirement here?

[dmk]

i push.

my range is probably 55+/AT+/KQ

[hazillow]

these spots always bother me.

the villains range can be anything here:

any PP, Axo, K8+, JT+, Q9+. right now you are ahead of about 70% of these hands. personally i would push and hit my head on the wall repeatedly when he calls and flips KK

my minimum pushing requirement here would probably what you have now, and PP down to about 77 or 88.

[rockin]

[ QUOTE ]
i push.

my range is probably 55+/AT+/KQ

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah given your reads on this villain, I probably shove for the resteal and am suprised when he has a hand this time or sucks out on me with his JTo.

[THEOSU]

If you're playing to win, you push. If you're playing to cash, you fold.

Welcome to the wonderful world of bubbling.

[dmk]

[ QUOTE ]

If you're playing to win, you push. If you're playing to cash, you fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you're playing to maximize $EV and play sound poker, you push

[reecelights]

You are ahead of his range is most positions, you are way ahead of his range with him on the button. Push and add another 33% to your stack.

[DonT77]

Yeah, this is what I was thinking too - afterwards.

I've been in a dry spell lately, only cashing in 1 of my last 35 MTTs (with many Bad Beats along the way), so I'm sure that affected my decision. If I was running a little better lately, I think this would have been an easy push for me. (On a side note - I've been crushing the cash games lately, so that has helped to offset my recent downside variance in MTTs and has helped to improve my play with deeper stacks.)

Results: I folded. Later on I lost 1/2 my stack with 99 to TT when I pushed with 10 BBs, then I busted out 39th when my AJ lost to 77 with 5BBs.

Maybe I lost an opportunity by not pushing here, but psychologically I think it was important for me to cash here - hopefully adding to + side of my MTT ledger will improvement my decisions and attitudes going forward. (I know this is not 'correct' thinking, but running bad can warp the mind - even though we fight it.) OTOH, if I pushed and won the blinds there, or pushed and won a coin-flip, then I probably would have had enough chips to get away from the hands that doomed me later on and maybe had a run at the FT. As much as I try to always make rational, logical decisions - I think I dropped the ball on this one from a long-term EV standpoint; which, as mentioned, should have been my focus.

[authority11]

PUUUUUUUUUUUUUUSH. With stats like his and him = button means your AJ is light years ahead of him.

[fro_dude]

Looks like LAG is playing steal from position, using bubble psychology to raise the calling requirements of his opponents left to act. For him...this play is +EV with almost any 2 cards, because he has only 2 players left to worry about, both of whom cannot well afford to get involved with moderate hands OOP. I believe you are way ahead of LAG's range, even if he calls, but I believe you have a good chance of making him lay down this hand. After all, you leave him with 1000 chips if you win this hand, so his calling range isn't a broad as you think it is. I think he lays down more hands than you think here, making this an even more +EV situation for you because you're on the bubble.