AA overpair against a probable set

[tytygoodnuts]

Check this hand out while we are at it:
Villian is 50/15/1.5. Earlier he busted me with AA over KK, so he is feeling good. This is the first time I have seen him make a big check-raise, so I was a little leery.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
10 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $47
UTG+1: $252.97
UTG+2: $97.58
tytygoodnuts: $49.50
MP2: $56.50
MP3: $82.61
CO: $49.25
Button: $80.25
SB: $89.63
BB: $59.20

Pre-flop: (10 players) tytygoodnuts is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#cc0000">tytygoodnuts raises to $2</font>, 3 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($8.75, 4 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">tytygoodnuts bets $7</font>, Button folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 raises to $28</font>, tytygoodnuts...

[BalugaWhale]

call and lead the turn

or push

the 2nd hand, that is

[cbloom]

2nd hand is a fold from what I know, he has QT or 66. I assume he raises AQ preflop with those stats, and UTG+1 is still live so he's not bluffing.

[BalugaWhale]

oh whoops I thought it was the button making that raise

my bad... now we've got stuff to think about on hand 2

[menACE69]

totally agree with answer. Any thoughts on why he wouldnt have QQ or KK and trying to push all draws of the pot. I understand he is a TAG player but is he a good TAG player. On those lower limits, so many people wait for so long to his premium hands and will shove all in with the a scary flop. However, Ia m giving the player the bennefit of the coubt and will say it looks more likely he has str8/flush draw....

[kslghost]

I think you need to raise bigger preflop. My reasoning here is that AA plays worst against around 4-5 players. With two callers in front, a normal sized raise is in danger of facing just that number of players.

That being said, I think here he is more likely to have a dangerous hand than the villain in the first hand. This is since this board is less coordinated. The only hand I feel we beat is if he can limp with AQ in this situation.

Back in the first hand, I'm not sure where TT and JJ in EP lie on the raising range of 15/7, so if they are very much in the limping range, I'll give those hands more consideration. I still feel its pretty unlikely. I feel its difficult to evaluate someone as "one of the best" and imagine them limping with a hand like JJ.

[tytygoodnuts]

Regarding the 1st hand: My "one of the best" comments should be disregarded. Now that I think about it more, he SEEMS to be a good player, but 300 hands really isn't that many to consider him really good. If you are thinking along the lines of "well he is really good, so he would clearly do this in that particular situation" when you really don't know for sure if he is good or not you are going to run into problems. You know what I mean?
That's why I think he could possibly be limping up front with TT or JJ even though the standard play is to raise for most "good" players.

[kslghost]

Yea, I agree. I do the same too by thinking "this player is really solid" based on relatively small samples. I still see this as being a scenario that is not as bad as it appears. I think there are a wide variety of hands he could have due to the coordinated nature of the board. Some people go crazy sometimes. I would not criticize someone for folding though.

I do agree you are rarely ahead comfortably.

[tytygoodnuts]

[ QUOTE ]
Why can't villain have the Queen/King of Clubs? If he's a good player, jamming the flop with a set doesn't make any sense as it doesn't extract value from you - a PSR makes more sense. Yet if he has the combo flush/straight draw, his equity is greater than 50% due to the probabilities he'll hit his draws, and jamming allows him to not make a mistake on the turn if his card doesn't come.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you are saying. That would be a good way to play KQ of clubs. However that is only one combination of cards when there are 3 combos each of JJ,TT, and 22, plus all the combos of JT. Those are all legit hands to consider as well.

[kslghost]

If he has QK of clubs, I'd hate the situation anyways... :-D I'd be praying he turns over AJ and hands over his money.