AA overpair against a probable set

[tytygoodnuts]

Here's the deal: This guy who checked raised me is one of the best players I have seen at the $50 NL tables.(Take that for what it's worth.) I have about 300 hands on him. He is about a 15/7/1.5. He plays tight and aggressive. When he check-raised me, my immediate thought was "He has a set of jacks or tens". Yet my index figure desparately wanted to hit the "call" button. What would you do here?

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $88.48
UTG+1: $65
MP1: $45.50
MP2: $241.47
MP3: $10
tytygoodnuts: $50
Button: $46.15
SB: $88.51
BB: $74

Pre-flop: (9 players) tytygoodnuts is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) checks, <font color="#cc0000">tytygoodnuts raises to $2.5</font>, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($13.25, 5 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#cc0000">tytygoodnuts bets $6</font>, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises all-in $62.5</font>, 2 folds, tytygoodnuts...

[Machavelli]

First I think you need to bet more on the flop. Closer to pot, at least 10.

Second, you dont even need to put him on a set. His range is pretty big - I think your probably up against some combo draw. If he had a set why would he be trying to push you out? Wouldnt he be more likely to raise to 20?

Long story short, fold.

[tytygoodnuts]

Yeah, I agree about the flop bet.
I think his range is something like this: JJ, TT, 22, JT being the mostly like hands. I think there is an outside chance he is going buck-wild with a hand like KQ or a flush draw. There is also a small chance he has AJ, but I highly doubt it.
[ QUOTE ]
If he had a set why would he be trying to push you out? Wouldnt he be more likely to raise to 20?

Long story short, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

That isn't a strong enough argument for him to not have a set here. If he has a set, an allin isn't a bad play at all, under the given circumstances maybe the best play.

Why would I not even need to put him on a set here? If you think he has a draw, why do you fold? Telling me "long story short, fold" is pretty worthless. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Simplistic]

muck. he either really doesn't want a scare card to hit, or he has huge outs and wants it in now.

[Machavelli]

My point wasnt that he doesnt have a set. My point was there isnt a need to be so specific. The question is does he have aces beat?

If the player is as good as you say I highly doubt he is going to be pushing w/ a flush draw or straight draw (maybe with both?). My point was that his hand ragne is crushing you. I put him on a combo draw to set. Good players generally dont risk everything on TPTK.

So in this spot I would fold..

[tytygoodnuts]

Thanks for replies. I think it's a clear fold too.

[kslghost]

He doesn't appear to be that great to me. If he has a set of jacks or tens, he's throwing away a ton of value by making this ridiculous bet. This reminds me of Phil Gordon's description of a player who makes massive overbets to make tons of money in NL cash games. If he's done it before, I would certainly be aware and writing it down.

I'm 95% sure he doesn't have JJ or TT. Look at his preflop stats and his actions. 7% is pretty tight, but he likely has those in his raising range.

In my opinion, the most likely hand he has at this point is 22, JT, or a random combo draw. I think you can call here with near 35-40 percent equity. Generally, I think I'd be slapping my head when he shows up 22.

[cbloom]

[ QUOTE ]
This reminds me of Phil Gordon's description of a player who makes massive overbets to make tons of money in NL cash games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that guy sucks. I hear he went BUSTO!

[tytygoodnuts]

95% sure he doesn't have JJ or TT? That seems way too high. Given his low preflop raising I think there is a good chance he limps in early position with JJ or TT.

[Tupacia]

Why can't villain have the Queen/King of Clubs? If he's a good player, jamming the flop with a set doesn't make any sense as it doesn't extract value from you - a PSR makes more sense. Yet if he has the combo flush/straight draw, his equity is greater than 50% due to the probabilities he'll hit his draws, and jamming allows him to not make a mistake on the turn if his card doesn't come.