Was this a smart play, as an alternative to +155 at game time?

[Scruff]

I didn't like the +155, and I honestly thought Texas was going to blow them out, I told my friends 49-28 all weekend. I can't remember a high scoring game for the Championship that was close. Seems like one team always gets a few turnovers or exploits some weakness and rolls to a sizeable win.

So looking to pile on a little before the game, I was shocked to see a +155 moneyline, after getting it earlier at +240 and +220.

So I tried this instead, $35 in total wagers.

Texas to win by 1-5, $5 to win $35
Texas to win by 6-10, $5 to win $55
Texas to win by 11-15, $5 to win $$80
Texas to win by 16-20, $5 to win $125
Texas to win by 21-25, $5 to win $200
Texas to win by 26-30, $5 to win $335
Texas to win by 31-35, $5 to win $375

If they lost, or won by 36 or more, I would have lost the $35. I figured if they won by anything more than 10, I'd have equal to much better odds than my moneyline win anyway. I cost myself $49.25 (I only won $5 instead of $54.25 on my $35), but I wonder if it was the better play or not, considering the huge payoff if it got out of hand.

[PropPlayer]

If the line you were getting was +155 seems like your logic makes sence to me. At 6 or more then you are getting these odds with a chance to win more with hitting 10.
I was sleeping all day till the day of the game. The line must of moved a ton if you had it +155. I had them +235.
The other thing I believe you could of probably got Texas -6 at better odds and through the $30 bet on that. From my experiance a 13pt move you might of found +380-+450 With the higher number being more likely. Your wager seems okay and A for creativity. This game came through huge for me.
I had my car stolen on New Years Eve and this game net me +12 units on a 3 team dog parlay risking .3 units. Just bought a new car today thanks to Vince Young.. I need to get a VY bumper sticker for it or something [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[DeucesUp]

Looks like a terrible play to me and I think your math is off. When you're making multiple wagers on mutually exclusive outcomes, you can't just combine the total amount risked to how much you win to determine an "effective moneyline".

Look at 11-15 as an example: You may say you're risking $35 to win $80 so the effective ML is +228, but this isn't right because you only get $5 of your $35 back (the other wagers all lost) so actually you're risking $35 to win $50 for an effective ML of +143. Thus even up to a Tex 15pt win you're getting much worse odds than the +155ML.

Math:
$35 on Tex ML +155 = $54.25(win) + $35(original) = $89.25 returned
$5 on Tex 11-15 +1600 = $80(win) + $5(original) = $85 returned


You were kind of stuck liking Texas to win since the available ML before game time was horrible, no way a 7pt dog should only be getting +155 on the ML, no matter how high scoring the game is going to be. I think your best options were to take Tex+7 just accept the extra cushion (you have to REALLY sure Tex is going to win to make a +155 ML better than +7-110) or possibly find a site which sells points - I think Pinnacle does this, but I'm not sure how many you can sell.