Correct push here?

Razzputin · #1 01-07-2006, 03:16 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) converter

Hero ($234.15)
MP3 ($84.90)
CO ($193.65)
Button ($59.75)
SB ($222.35)
BB ($190.90)
UTG ($188.90)
UTG+1 ($198.70)
MP1 ($190.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $8, MP3 calls $8, 2 folds, SB raises to $20, 1 fold, UTG calls $18, Hero calls $12, MP3 calls $12.

Flop: ($82) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets $25, UTG calls $25, Hero raises to $214.15, MP3 folds, SB folds, UTG folds.

Final Pot: $346.15

Results in white below: 
No showdown. Hero wins $346.15.

EverettKings · #2 01-07-2006, 04:21 AM

*Shudders*

I don't like it. I call the flop and pray I fill up.

The SB reraised a 4x raise and caller, out of position. His range is pretty darn tight, I'd say AK/TT+ or so (often even tighter since many players won't reraise less than QQ there).

Strictly mathematically, there are 16 AK combinations, 6 AA, 6 KK, 3 QQ, 3 TT. Assuming he'd play any of those hands this way (AA/KK as kind of a probe bet, the other hands begging to be raised), you're losing over half of the time. And most of the time you're winning (to AA and KK), he can very likely fold to your push.

The good thing is that most of the time that you're behind, it's to AK and you have many boat outs. Also note that there are two other people in the hand yet to speak, and given the action AK in one of their hands is not unlikely.

Either way a push on the flop bad. I'm proceeding with a lot of caution here. I guess your push worked out this time but it has to be -EV in the long run.

Everett

ryanghall · #3 01-07-2006, 04:24 AM

I have to disagree with Everett. I like this a lot and I'd play it the same way.

Only QQ has you slaughtered. Even if they have AK, in the 2nd worst case scenario, you have outs. If you raise, you have to raise all-in. Nice hand.

Ryan

EverettKings · #4 01-07-2006, 04:56 AM

what

worse

hand

is

calling

Edit: that wasn't very explanatory. Hero is making a pretty good overbet that I'm pretty sure only gets called when he's behind. If he'd only had $75 and UTG had folded, I'd agree with a push.

Karak567 · #5 01-07-2006, 05:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]

what

worse

hand

is

calling

Edit: that wasn't very explanatory. Hero is making a pretty good overbet that I'm pretty sure only gets called when he's behind. If he'd only had $75 and UTG had folded, I'd agree with a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy push. This is NL 200 so TJ, QJ and JQ are all hands that some of the donks on these tables would call with. Not to mention KK and AA and the undersets.

If a straight calls we just pair the board and/or river quads.

EverettKings · #6 01-07-2006, 05:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Easy push. This is NL 200 so TJ, QJ and JQ are all hands that some of the donks on these tables would call with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've played my share of NL 200 and they're rarely donkish enough to get involved in this pot preflop with any of those hands. Besides, there aren't many Jx combinations left since we have three of them.

[ QUOTE ]
Not to mention KK and AA and the undersets.

[/ QUOTE ]

The undersets being.... TT. Which washes with the one overset, QQ. And AA and KK can probably be folded by more opponents than you think. Even if they can't, AK still dominates his range and your likely source of a call.

I'd bet money this guy folded AA.

Everett

Lucky · #7 01-07-2006, 05:17 AM

I like it. Raising the pot would be about 180 anyway, so the overbet is not extreme.

Anyway, you're almost surely ahead, and if not, you're rarely be drawing dead. That being said a ton of cards you wont like, which means many drawing hands out there. With the big pot and board like it is, you'll often get callers with worse hands.

nrinker · #8 01-07-2006, 05:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
*Shudders*

I don't like it. I call the flop and pray I fill up.

The SB reraised a 4x raise and caller, out of position. His range is pretty darn tight, I'd say AK/TT+ or so (often even tighter since many players won't reraise less than QQ there).

Strictly mathematically, there are 16 AK combinations, 6 AA, 6 KK, 3 QQ, 3 TT. Assuming he'd play any of those hands this way (AA/KK as kind of a probe bet, the other hands begging to be raised), you're losing over half of the time. And most of the time you're winning (to AA and KK), he can very likely fold to your push.

The good thing is that most of the time that you're behind, it's to AK and you have many boat outs. Also note that there are two other people in the hand yet to speak, and given the action AK in one of their hands is not unlikely.

Either way a push on the flop bad. I'm proceeding with a lot of caution here. I guess your push worked out this time but it has to be -EV in the long run.

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]

and pray you fill up? you have to be kidding me. Thats the least of our worries here.

The only hand to worry about here is qq. If you think the villain has ak here your still putting it because you have a great hand thats likely best/can draw to the nutts, and besides, you cant narrow your opponents range to 1 hand.

So basically, what your saying when you "need to fill up" is that your opponent has AK, do you see why your thinking is off kilter?

Big_Jim · #9 01-07-2006, 05:36 AM

Looks perfect.

Half the deck kills your action/hand.

Razzputin · #10 01-07-2006, 05:41 AM

My reasoning for the raise was that I felt that the SB's most likely holding were AA or KK so I needed to raise. UTG seemed to be a bad player and his call on the flop looked like he was on a draw so I wanted to push both players out with a pot sized raise. Hence I pushed for a little more then the pot.

When I won the hand SB said, "So obviously AK."
I believe he thought he made a great laydown with AA or KK.