The turn donk slowed me down - Do I speed up when I improve?

Aaron W. · #1 04-15-2006, 01:23 PM

Villain was somewhat new to the table, so I only had 20 hands or so of stats when this happened. The numbers didn't stand out in any way, so he's looking fairly average so far.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets, Hero...

ginozola · #2 04-15-2006, 01:31 PM

Difficult one. The likely holding of MP3 is a flush. He hasn't raised preflop which makes an overpair less likely. He's check called the flop and bet out when a card lower than two already on board fell, which again signals a flush. I think if MP3 had raised pf then I'd raise here, but for me everything signals we're beaten. I don't see him folding to a raise, so I'd just call down. Interested to see what others think though.

Jaran · #3 04-15-2006, 01:32 PM

I'm more likely to raise the turn than the river. His river continuation bet is less likely to be a bluff than the turn donk. W/o a read, it's tough to put him on a range, but it is soooo wide that I can't see a river raise being correct. I would say his range includes anything from a made flush to a weak J (although the river bet on an A tends to discount the latter). I would just call the river.

-Jaran

Baloosh · #4 04-15-2006, 01:42 PM

Getting to a showdown for 2BB against a relative unknown sounds like the best play.

Is raise/fold the turn too spewy, or would it not slow down a typical Villain often enough to achieve the same effect (checking behind a river check)?

bozlax · #5 04-15-2006, 01:43 PM

The only possible holding for MP3 that you improved against is some kind of whacky two-pair. You're still behind to flushes, sets and straights, and there are a lot of those on the board.

No real point in keeping the betting open, is there? Raising just lets him bleed one more BB out of us with his monsters (I can't see folding to a 3-bet if we raise) or fold his busted flush/jack-no-kicker hands. Call and show it down.

bozlax · #6 04-15-2006, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is raise/fold the turn too spewy...

[/ QUOTE ]

You do see that Hero is holding the NFD, right?

nomadtla · #7 04-15-2006, 02:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The likely holding of MP3 is a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doubtful 90% of donks will c/r this if they hit it. I would say the turn donk is a better indication of a bluff then a flush. Though the fact that the turn fills a straight and a flush bothers me. I really wanna see this down so I can't fold the river to a 3 bet, so I call the river and get pissed when he shows me 85o.

milesdyson · #8 04-15-2006, 02:28 PM

i'd just call the turn and call the river.

not only are there the flush possibilities but there are also the 56789 and 89TJQ straights too.

shadow. · #9 04-15-2006, 02:51 PM

wtf i def. raise this turn.

i think that we'll see a singleton heart a ton of time. also a jack that doesn't want to give a free card.

hell, i think that you'll see a ten sometime here too.

y'all (micro posters in general) give way too much credit to your opponents. your opponents are fukcing morons who have no idea what they're doing. half the time they don't even know what their hole cards are.

raise. punish your opponents for their idiocy.

VickreyAuction · #10 04-15-2006, 02:54 PM

I'm inclined to raise the river. I tend to interpret turn donkbets as a sign of mediocre strength. If villain made a flush or straight, wouldn't he check-raise the turn? I put him on a weak J, possibly 2 pair. He leads the ace river, decreasing the likelihood of a weak J, but you're now ahead of 2 pair. I raise the river and call a 3bet to get to showdown. If he donked a straight or flush, then make a note.

Will a bad player fold Jx on this board to a river raise?