should I bet this river and if so, am i bluffing?

RoundTower · #1 04-13-2006, 09:41 PM

Mostly interested in the river although comments on all streets are welcome.

4 handed $2-$4 game online. Same small European site as my last post. Villain is loose preflop, slightly loose postflop. He is hard to shake from a hand when he has outs. He has picked up several unwanted pots betting in last position on the flop, but hasn't been particularly aggressive apart from that. I have been aggressive, though not maniacal, and I don't think I have had to show down a total bluff.

I open raise from the button with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Villain calls in the BB. He has $305 and I cover.

Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Check, I bet $28, he calls.

Turn K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Check, I bet $84, he calls.

River 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He checks. Pot is $252, he has $179 left. I...?

Troll_Inc · #2 04-13-2006, 11:03 PM

I would check the river. I think that there is a good chance that you will only get called if you are beat, which as you people say would be an -EV play. I would say there is a good chance he just has a low flush. If he thinks you are LAG, then he might just call.

He could also have 99 or 88 and was waiting for board to pair, or QQ and was waiting to trap, or a straight and was playing it weak. There's a lot of hands he could have played poorly that have you beat.

How did I do?

joewatch · #3 04-14-2006, 01:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would check the river. I think that there is a good chance that you will only get called if you are beat, which as you people say would be an -EV play. I would say there is a good chance he just has a low flush. If he thinks you are LAG, then he might just call.

He could also have 99 or 88 and was waiting for board to pair, or QQ and was waiting to trap, or a straight and was playing it weak. There's a lot of hands he could have played poorly that have you beat.

How did I do?

[/ QUOTE ]

This of course is read dependent. But I agree that there is a very good chance villain will call with a low flush. I would check behind hoping to see a lower set.

Chimichonga · #4 04-14-2006, 08:35 AM

It seems like every time I decide to bet this type of hand on the river, I get called by the baby flush and every time I check behind, the guy had second or third set and would have called my value bet...

TheRempel · #5 04-14-2006, 01:02 PM

I'd bet $80-$90 on the river and swear if he calls with JT.

forssell · #6 04-14-2006, 03:44 PM

Check. If villain is not a complete moron he doesnt have just a straight. I think he folds a flush about never but is a lot more likely to fold a set. From description I have no reason to believe a set is a lot more likely than a flush.

Preflop standard, flop I pot often, sometimes wait turn to fold/pot. Turn often pot, but sometimes check.

Betting river as a bluff would suck imo.

Pouncer · #7 04-14-2006, 03:57 PM

I'd check.

If you think villian will fold a small flush (it doesn't seem like you do) then set him in. Otherwise check, as you have nothing to gain by betting. This isn't the board to be value betting. He's not afraid of the flush and likely made a small one, maybe with a smaller set to go with it.

If he called you with a straight, make a note and rebuy. If you get called by a straight flush, ugh.

RoundTower · #8 04-14-2006, 08:18 PM

Normally I check this river, or bet as a bluff.

Here I had been playing against this guy for quite some time and I thought I had a good handle on how he played. I thought he was much much more likely to be calling with a set, knowing he had outs, than check calling with a small flush draw and now a small flush. I think he never has a straight. I tried to hint at this in the OP but really I think you have to play against someone to get this impression.

I thought he would fold whatever hand he had here, including most low flushes. If he decides I am bluffing he is as likely to look me up with trips as a low flush IMO; after all I am hardly betting top set or a small flush for value here. And of course if my hand is good I'd rather not have it shown down, which is a small secondary factor.

So I bet $95 and hoped for a call.

Chimichonga · #9 04-14-2006, 08:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
And of course if my hand is good I'd rather not have it shown down, which is a small secondary factor.

[/ QUOTE ]

And here you said that you don't think much about the metagame!

RoundTower · #10 04-14-2006, 08:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And of course if my hand is good I'd rather not have it shown down, which is a small secondary factor.

[/ QUOTE ]

And here you said that you don't think much about the metagame!

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't while playing, but that won't stop me from using it to justify my play after the fact.