poker calculatio: set vs. overset question

[liucipher]

A little off-topic. I've got a friend bemoaning his "bad" play becuase of a set vs. overset hand. I told him to not worry about it too much. I was trying to figure out how often it happens in a 6max game. Is this calculation right? (I know these are approximations.)

6% chance you get pocket pair
30% chance one of the other five has a pocket pair
11% chance you flop a set
11% chance he flops a set

so 6% * 30% * 11% * 11% ~ 0.02% chance or once per 5,000 hands or so?

I realize I'm ignoring the overlaps and chance of multiple pocket pairs, etc. but this is back of the envelope.

[AdamDenick]

I have no idea, but probability forum

[liucipher]

Thanks. Forgot about that. Though probability forum looks like a wasteland of dead posts ...