I hate poker.

[Margon]

[ QUOTE ]

So in summary, the passive strategy of calling his third raise on the flop and calling on the turn loses
less than the aggressive strategy of pushing the flop. The reason is it allows us to make more from the
few hands in his range we are beating. Since we are not folding, we are always losing the same amount to
the hands that are beating us.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I want to give this another read in the morning.

Thank you,

Margon

[CTKid]

converted.

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
7 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($5, 5 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $2</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises to $6</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $15</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises to $36</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($81, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP1 is all-in $62.1</font>, Hero calls.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($205.2, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $205.2)


Results:
Final pot: $205.2

[DeadMoney_J]

[ QUOTE ]

Now, if he's resonable, he will fold AA/KK to our four bet


[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's assuming a LOT at this level. More often than not, I think a player here (with his shown actions) goes in with you if he has AA or KK.

So if we hold your assumptions to be truth then there are SPECIFIC situations to do this with but on this draw heavy of a board, I just cant see it. Too much to kill our action on the turn and then we no longer have odds to boot. someone put me in check if my logic is off.

[RED FACE]

I think it's super rare that villains 3bet draws oop on the flop without pushing. At least villains we need to be worried about.

I didn't look at this very long but think that once he 3bets he has AA, KK, set, str8 and AA/KK wont bet turn unimproved. Considering his pflimp from early position I wouldn't put him on his 85s either nor a 2 pair type hand. I guess I'd think set or overpair and would assume I'm in the lead and not fear draws so I'd take my time getting the money in.

[RED FACE]

[ QUOTE ]
More often than not, I think a player here (with his shown actions) goes in with you if he has AA or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has AA we can think he was going for the limp 3bet and is angry he missed and is now willing to tilt off his stack, I guess I can see calling but otherwise,

I disagree. AA/KK, if he 3bets, loves to see a 4bet right here so he can fold w confidence. A 4bet screams, "I have the nuts or damned close", and AA is a long way from there.

I would need a specific and strong read to call a 4bet with just an op. I'd never do it I think.

[DeadMoney_J]

Maybe Im just spoiled by Party but I regularly see guys call a push here for another ~$60 with just AA/KK. Also this may be due to me playing 6 max. At full ring it may be diff. but at 6 max guys seem to think AA is the nuts. In this hand I didnt put him on that anyways... just brought up the AA/KK based on OPs assumptions about the poss. hands and Villain's actions/future actions based on that.

[doublesooted]

[ QUOTE ]
Just push the flop, this post has little strategic content and should be posted in BBV. No need to get bent outtve shape over losing with a flopped set.

[/ QUOTE ]

[CTKid]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe Im just spoiled by Party but I regularly see guys call a push here for another ~$60 with just AA/KK. Also this may be due to me playing 6 max. At full ring it may be diff. but at 6 max guys seem to think AA is the nuts. In this hand I didnt put him on that anyways... just brought up the AA/KK based on OPs assumptions about the poss. hands and Villain's actions/future actions based on that.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the NL25 on Party, I would agree completely, but at Party NL100 its a different story. Anyway, this hand was at Pokerroom 100NL, which plays fairly weak/tight compared to Party, and I can assure you the assumptions are valid for that game, at least.

[Peeda]

This hand range is sort of ridiculous, so he can only have an unlikely straight and a couple other unlikely hands thrown in to justify your calldown? Does he never raise? So he both limps the nuts and limps with utter trash in EP? Then you need to add 76,64,74,75 at the very least. He never does this with a heart draw/combo draw? If this guy is an ultra-nit and only bets the nuts making this -ev (which is your read), bummer I guess, I don't think I'd fold this either.

What are you stats/read on this guy? If people are this tight definately raise it up pf and take it down. If they're not definately push because of the draws.

[CTKid]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand range is sort of ridiculous, so he can only have an unlikely straight and a couple other unlikely hands thrown in to justify your calldown? Does he never raise? So he both limps the nuts and limps with utter trash in EP? Then you need to add 76,64,74,75 at the very least. He never does this with a heart draw/combo draw? If this guy is an ultra-nit and only bets the nuts making this -ev (which is your read), bummer I guess, I don't think I'd fold this either.

What are you stats/read on this guy? If people are this tight definately raise it up pf and take it down. If they're not definately push because of the draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously any analysis of this sort depends heavily on the hand ranges we assign. But look carefully at the action in this hand, I think it greatly narrows his hand range. On the flop, my reraise gets the action heads up. He nonetheless puts in the third raise, but just a min-raise. That raise has virtually no fold-equity, since he's giving me better than 4:1 to call it, and is not a reaasonable play for someone with a mediocre hand and a big-ish draw. The only draw I believe would do that is the one I included, w/ Ah5h for an OESD and NFD, making him a small favourite on the flop against a reasonable range for my holding.

Seriously, what other hands would he do this with? You can always say he's a donkey and could have any two. But donkeys tend to explode by not giving up on a hand in which they miss a draw or have a pretty hand they can't admit is beat, not in a multiway limped pot with heavy action and one small pair.

Also note that his most likely two pair hand, 76, involves the case six and is a very small correction.

Comments appreciated,
ct