#1
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Fold trips here?
Villain is running 29-19. We'd played a few hands together, and he has typically folded when I bet on the flop, although he is by no means weak tight. Goes to showdown about 25% of the time and wins 45%. It really smelled like a flush to me.
Poker Room skin No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 10 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $14 UTG+1: $31.50 UTG+2: $47.25 MP1: $46.65 MP2: $51.15 MP3: $20 Hero: $97.05 Button: $48.75 SB: $36.05 BB: $62.95 Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with KQ 4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, 3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds. Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($5.25, 2 players) MP2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, MP2 calls. Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($13.25, 2 players) MP2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $16</font>, Hero calls. River: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($45.25, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">MP2 is all-in $29.15</font>, Hero... |
#2
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Re: Fold trips here?
I'm not sure exactly what he has, but I think he has you beat here.
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#3
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Re: Fold trips here?
Tough laydown but I'm folding the turn after the c/r
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#4
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Re: Fold trips here?
likely flush id fold
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#5
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Re: Fold trips here?
Fold.
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#6
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Re: Fold trips here?
IF you are folding, it is certainly not on the turn.
The pot has $13.25 + 8 + 16 = 37.25 in it; 37.25/8 (to call)= 4.6:1. 3 Kings + 1 Queen + 3 Eights + 3 Fives = 10 Outs or 4.6:1 to fill-up, if he has a flush. We are not folding here. If he has a Q (does he limp open limp AQ in MP? or maybe KQ, QJ, QT, ) we are making a terrible mistake. How does he play his draws, hit or miss? I feel like a min-raise on the turn OOP is a queen, flush, or full-house (bad shape). Try: p(q)= .1 p(fl)= .8 p(fh)=.1 River feels like a fold to me, but the turn is never one. |
#7
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Re: Fold trips here?
[ QUOTE ]
Tough laydown but I'm folding the turn after the c/r [/ QUOTE ] That would be really bad. You should river a boat or quads instead. You should also look to see if you have Kd |
#8
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Re: Fold trips here?
Looks like another one of those situations where you know you're ahead but want to call and make sure. In this case, I think a fold is prudent.
Theres a chance he's pulling moves like this with another queen, but given his stats, QJ is most likely (and is now beating you). |
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