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#1
04-04-2006, 06:14 PM
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Variance! Reducing it! How to! Poll!
You are UTG 7handed at the $25NL. You wake up with 99 and make it $1.00 to go. Folded around to button who minraises you to $1.75. Button covers. Blinds fold.
Button is SLAP (35/8/1). Your super-duper hand reading skills give you the following range for villain: %80 chance AT-AK %10 chance smaller PP %10 chance bigger PP. %90 chance villain calls a push. If our goal is to REDUCE VARIANCE in this situation do we: 
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#2
04-04-2006, 06:41 PM
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Re: Variance! Reducing it! How to! Poll!
Assuming you have at least $25 and he covers I would call here because you're getting great implied odds to stack him if he has an overpair or AK/AQ.
If it comes 9 high he's rarely mucking his overpair at this limit and if it comes A9x he's only going to have AA 10% of the time according to you so you stack him anyway. In microlimits I call here for set value and fold if I miss.
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#3
04-04-2006, 06:49 PM
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Re: Variance! Reducing it! How to! Poll!
No way should you push in that situation. If the pot looks favorable place a bet of 1/2 to 3/4 the pot and see what happens. He comes over the top use your zen-like poker skills and make the best decision you can.
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#4
04-04-2006, 10:35 PM
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Re: Variance! Reducing it! How to! Poll!
I voted other - the easiest way to reduce variance and only reduce variance is to fold. No variance!
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#5
04-04-2006, 11:27 PM
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Re: Variance! Reducing it! How to! Poll!
[ QUOTE ]
I voted other - the easiest way to reduce variance and only reduce variance is to fold. No variance! [/ QUOTE ] Very interesting response!! I posted this with the intention of seeing how many people would vote 'poosh' which I thought was the correct response (ie: ev maximimization is the only true variance lowerer) but then ur response actually proved me wrong!! Kudos, sir, kudos. AND GODDAMN ALL U MATH NERDS ON POKER MAKING ALL THAT MONEY.
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#7
04-05-2006, 03:09 AM
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Re: Variance! Reducing it! How to! Poll!
[ QUOTE ]
If our goal is to REDUCE VARIANCE in this situation do we: [/ QUOTE ] This is silly. If your goal is to reduce variance, fold. Then quit poker. If your goal is to win money (accepting a reasonable amount of variance), call and play poker.
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#8
04-05-2006, 03:24 AM
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Re: Variance! Reducing it! How to! Poll!
I am so sick of seeing posts about what game has more or less variance, and how to reduce variance. Don't you guys get it? Variance is not your enemy!
Not calling with decent hands and either good pot odds or the knowledge that the guys you are playing with will call you to the river when you have them beat is how to win at poker. [censored] variance! If you can't take the swings, play in a lower limit or play tiddly winks. Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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