Can you really bet this based on pot equity?

[Absolution]

This argument ignores pot size (at least the snippet you posted does and I'm guessing Chris Ferguson wouldn't ignore it). In a large pot (if it were raised preflop for example) I'd be inclined to raise here and fold those gutshots and perhaps other aces to improve my chances of taking the whole pot with just an ace. In a small pot it might be right to go for the overcalls.

[RcrdBoy]

[ QUOTE ]

But what happens when not everyone does call? What happens when someone folds. And my experience is that someone will fold.

Now, if I assume that 2 of my 3 opponents will fold when I bet, my chances of winning goes up (yeah!), meaning my pot equity goes up (yeah!), but I believe my bet now loses me money (not yeah!)

I don't think it would be a stretch to find yourself in a situation like the above where you're on a flush draw and you find your bet to cause 2 players to fold while someone with, say, KQ stays in the hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

If your scenario happens and you miss your draw on the turn you do not want to auto bet the turn. Instead, you see the turn and the river for 1 SB by taking a free card.

And FWIW, I don't see this scenario happen often. TPGkicker getting checked and 2 of 3 opponents folding for one bet on the flop happens rarely at the limits I play.

Most of the time KQ bets that flop and then the question becomes rasing the flop if it's the person directly to your right that bets.

[SixT4]

What does fold equity mean?

[Saint_D]

[ QUOTE ]
What does fold equity mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

The ability to cause someone with a better hand or a hand that might overtake your to fold.

Every time you show aggression by betting or raising you gain some "fold equity". If you bet out the flop, then raise the turn, you chances of folding people are higher than if you check/called the flop. The more you bet, the scarier people think your hand might be and thus more likely they will fold. If you pair the ace on the turn, you would really like to fold out better aces or people with an underpair that might improve to two pair on the river.

Most of the time at low limits it's not a primary consideration. It adds weight to the reason you want to bet out in this spot.

[kerowo]

In this situation if you are on the button and the flop is checked to you I think you bet for value. You have a good draw to the nuts, your ace is probably good for at least a split if it hits, and no one has shown any aggression. If you have been aggressive it's not unpossible to take the pot down right there, especially if no one has a lot of clubs. If you get check raised you know what you are up against and can call down and fold the river ui.

[AJay]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me sum it up. Bet this flop for these reasons.

...2. You disguise your hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the list. They all make sense, and I especially like #2 -- how many times have I made a flush on the river and thought to myself, "Gee, now, when I bet, after we all checked the flop and turn, ain't no one gonna call 'cause it's obvious what I have."

[Magellan]

[ QUOTE ]
Now, I understand that my chances of making my draw by showdown is 35%. So, if I bet on the flop and turn and everyone calls, I've gained.

[/ QUOTE ]

The critical point here being that your opponents need to stay in 'til the river.

Rightly or wrongly, I tend to look more at my flop-to-turn equity (~19% for a lone FD) and turn-to-river equity (~20% for a lone FD), which may be causing my line to be on the weak side. The problem is that I think it's rare in a case like this that all of our opponents follow us to the river, particularly when we are the aggressor in the hand. I'm interested to hear others' thoughts on this.

[AJay]

[ QUOTE ]
What does fold equity mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

Saint D defined it fine, but I'll add an aphorism I heard once that always comes back to me when I think of fold equity:

"If you only check / call, there's only one way you can win the pot [if you have the best hand]; if you bet / raise, there's two [with the best hand or by getting your opponent to fold.]"

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
Now, I understand that my chances of making my draw by showdown is 35%. So, if I bet on the flop and turn and everyone calls, I've gained.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite. The 35% figure includes those times that you catch your flush on the turn, if you miss the turn then your chances of making your flush are now less than 1 in 4 making a value bet incorrect (you might still bet for other reasons, just not for value). In fact if you suspected you might not get to the river with your draw for some reason (not realistically possible with the hand and flop you gave, but sometimes possible with weaker draws in more multiway pots), then betting the flop on equity alone could be wrong since you would lose that bet if you fold the turn and your draw comes in on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
Now let me modify the hand. Suppose the flop comes Q8K? At this pooint, with 3 other people in the pot, it doesn't seem likely to me that I have the best hand. So if I bet, it would be based just on pot and fold equity, right? Of course, in that situation, I would have doubts about having the best hand, so if I don't think I have the best hand, I can simply check and wait for the turn, so I guess the question is moot in that situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

A good argument against betting for equity, but there are other reasons to bet (primarily varying your play, fold equity against pairs below queens, and the possibility of a free river).

Fryguy:
[ QUOTE ]
Any time you can thin the field with a second best hand that has a chance of improving you should do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a slight oversimplification, if your hand is 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on a T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] board narrowing the field just screws up your implied odds by making the hands that can't beat your draw fold.

Magellan:
[ QUOTE ]
Rightly or wrongly, I tend to look more at my flop-to-turn equity (~19% for a lone FD) and turn-to-river equity (~20% for a lone FD), which may be causing my line to be on the weak side. The problem is that I think it's rare in a case like this that all of our opponents follow us to the river, particularly when we are the aggressor in the hand. I'm interested to hear others' thoughts on this.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong because if I bet the flop in OP's hand and they all call, I gain whether my opponents go to the river or not. This is because I'm not realistically folding before the river, and their bets stay in the pot, so I win the flop bets even if I miss the turn and my draw comes in on the river.