Cash Games - Is it optimal strategy to "Auto-Fold when raised on Turn?

[ilovebadbeats]

With some exceptions...

1.) you can call if you have a decent amount of outs AND you think there is a small %age chance you already have the best hand
(like if you have a 4 flush or inside str8 to go with your Top Pair)

2.) You have good reason to believe the guy is semi-bluffing
(esp. if pot is HU and the guy
thinks you might fold)

3.) The pot is very large and you have a few outs to improve
(and thus, good odds)


I seem to have a problem of "Auto-calling" when raised for a big bet on the Turn (and this wrecks my BB/100), and
despite very often having a decent hand (a TPTK or TP-very good kicker I end up losing).
My point is that for MOST ALL players at the small stakes ($5/10 and below), when
they pop
you on the Turn (and you don't think it's a semi-bluff or have a read on the
guy that says he's a donk) it almost always means 2 pair, a set, or concealed str8.
And, in the
best case scenario (when you have a Top Pair hand and are only against 2 pair), you have 8 or 9 outs to make a better 2 pair
(but I'd estimate that you're only in this spot 50% of the time or less when popped on the Turn, AND when you do improve and call down (or raise) you MIGHT be up against a full thinking the
2 pair you have (1 in the community) allowed you to overtake a smaller 2 pair
(need a super-read to do this, but you'd at least call-down and lose that big bet...).

It seems like
"Auto-folding" just about all the time when popped on the Turn
allows for you to make some great money-saving folds! Assuming your
opponents don't catch on, do you think it is optimal to make an almost
Auto. Fold on the Turn (against predictable opponents who only would do this with 2 pair, set, or str8)?

[cpk]

Being raised on the turn is probably the most difficult situation in limit poker. At least, it is for me. The reason it's so difficult is that a mistake made either way is too expensive. A clue to how difficult it is: Even in excellent books on limit hold em there is very little helpful material dealing with this situation.

Auto-folding might work well at the lower limits, but at the mid-limits you'll get crucified if you do this. Even mediocre players are not so addled that they won't notice your bet/folding, and they'll start throwing in a few bluffs. That's a disaster, as they're playing nearly optimally against you.

The main thing is that reads are essential to play this situation properly. Indeed, sometimes you should fold. Sometimes you should peel one and fold UI if bet into. Sometimes you should call down. And sometimes you should in fact reraise. It's all about your read.

[BobbyArmani]

[ QUOTE ]
Being raised on the turn is probably the most difficult situation in limit poker. At least, it is for me. The reason it's so difficult is that a mistake made either way is too expensive. A clue to how difficult it is: Even in excellent books on limit hold em there is very little helpful material dealing with this situation.

Auto-folding might work well at the lower limits, but at the mid-limits you'll get crucified if you do this. Even mediocre players are not so addled that they won't notice your bet/folding, and they'll start throwing in a few bluffs. That's a disaster, as they're playing nearly optimally against you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very well put.

As I see it, getting raised on the turn is the TAG's Achilles' Heel. It is the price for playing so well up to this point in the hand. Just as raising preflop for value makes money now but often subjects us to reverse implied odds later, poker has many balancing factors such as this that prevent a more knowledgable player from destroying weaker players in the short run and with less variance overall. I suspect this is due to the "incomplete information" nature of the game. A stronger player is more easily read simply because his play makes more sense!

The weaker player can splash around all he likes and we usually have his number but he always has this play to haul us back in and reduce his overall loss (thus far in the hand) to us. No play any earlier (or later, for that matter) in the hand is as valuable to him as this is.

I'm pretty sure I am still not folding the turn or river often enough in these situations but increasing dramatically the number of times you fold is NOT the answer. Probably a few more folds are in order but choosing where and when is the trick. I won't even begin to offer advice as to what these are since I don't know myself. I would LOVE to see some of the stronger, long-term pros on this board (and high stakes as well) join this thread.

I suspect that handling this one postflop decision well is more important to an otherwise winning TAGs bottom line than all other postflop decisions combined.

[RuterKnekt]

The numbers of players are important too. With five players on the turn you can fold pretty often with top pair and not so often headsup. I dont like autofold ever after betting somewhere in the hand and players will notice this rather quickly.

[bobbyi]

I learned how to play limit holdem in the low stakes games (2/4 and 4/8) at Foxwoods a little over five years ago when I was a college student. In those games, the strategy you described was absolutely the correct strategy against the large majority of opponents. That goes doubly so when you were check-raised. When someone who looks like your grandmother (which was quite a noticable portion of the day game lineup at that time) raised you on the turn in a 4/8 game, she isn't semi-bluffing, ever. Your main hope is that she misread her hand again, but that's usually not enough to call.

In mid-limit games, that strategy is not good because people learn how to exploit it. Learning other poker games helps me understand LHE better. One idea that made an impact on me from NL is that bets and raises before the river have a lot more leverage than the money you bet because of the threat of more betting to come. A turn raise in LHE is similar. Even if the guy thinks you may be bluffing, he has to worry it will cost 2 more bets to see a shodown, even though you may not be planning to put any more money in the pot. This is why the free showdown raise is powerful and dangerous and can [censored] you if you auto-fold the turn.

[marrek]

The only other thing i have to add is that it seems very much an opponent dependant situation.

If there's 5 people in the hand, it's probably not a bluff raise enough for it to be worthwhile to call, even if you do wind up with the best hand. Even if you are 100% sure the guy is bluffing, what do you do if there's overcalls before it gets back to you? I think folding here is the +EV play.

But heads-up, its totally an opponent based decision. Does he passively call down hands? Not one to raise without 2 pair or better? A calling station who likes any pair or any ace? Does he like risk, raising draws or 2nd pairs? Does he take shots if he thinks he might be ahead with a weak hand? Is your opponent tight or loose? Aware or has his head up his xxx? I think the more you respect your opponents raises, the easier you can fold UNLESS he can make plays at the right times, or can raise a draw ( proper semi-bluffing)

If your opponent seems to be tight, ABC, i think folding is the +EV play.

Mark

[daveT]

It's all read-based, one of those things they say can only be learned at the poker table.

I think that most of the time, you can get a solid read fairly quick in a live ring game. One thing to consider is this: If the turn raise is so confusing to you, perhaps you should try it, that may help balance the equation a little bit more. And yes, I will raise the turn with TPGK.

[Dazarath]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it optimal strategy to "Auto-Anything when [insert situation here]?

[/ QUOTE ]
No.

[mike l.]

[ QUOTE ]
Auto-folding might work well at the mid limits, but at the high limits you'll get crucified if you do this.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP for live play.

[Brom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is it optimal strategy to "Auto-Anything when [insert situation here]?

[/ QUOTE ]
No.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raise the river when one is holding the nuts and gets bet into?