3/6 Common Situation

[MacGuyV]

There are 4 bets in the pot, so we save 2 when we fold out the hands that would've chopped had another trump river'd (this happens 24% of the time?)
OP said villian is "LP" - ok - I personally don't take this lame read as gosphel that is applicable to every situation in Hold 'em, but whatever.
IMO even a lot of calling stations are going to be folding non flush pairs and betting them on the river when we check the turn; and even if they don't they'll more likely call a river bet with a worse hand because it looks like more of a bluff. You're beat most of the time he bets the river (not always), but the same is true when you're called on the turn. Plus you forfeit a 4outer if you fold to a turn C/R.
Admittadly my other reply was smug and this is closer than I thought, but a turn check is hardly "terrible".