Gaming INTC stock price

[Groty]

Everyone knows INTC's first quarter numbers are going to suck. Have we already reached the point of maximum negativity (which would mean it's time to buy), or do we wait until the official announcement of 1Q numbers hoping for a gap down?

I had originally thought INTC would bottom around $16-$18. But after two pieces of unexpected "bad" news didn't cause the stock to trade down to that level, namely that notebook demand in Q1 is softer than expected, and the PC upgrade cycle is getting pushed out due to another delay in VISTA, I'm wondering if it hasn't already bottomed.

My gut tells me the institutional money managers who didn't want to show INTC as a holding at the end of the quarter because it has lost about 20% since the year began may start buying tommorrow and not wait until the Q1 announcement (I think April 9).

I still don't think there are any postive catalysts for the stock until late summer/fall, but I'm willing to be patient.

[Mr. Now]

The chart is butt ugly. But, and it's a big but, the stock was at this level in late Sept2004 when it hit a recent bottom.

You might consider waiting till the price nears or actually crosses the 50 day moving average (~ $20.50) on increasing volume before getting busy with this one. There is nothing saying the current downtrend cannot go on (or stall sideways) for a very long time. If that is the case, any long position established now could be dead money for some time.