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#11
03-31-2006, 11:35 PM
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Re: $400 NL 6M - Strange River All-In Raise. Call?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] or hillarious 78 [/ QUOTE ] MAAAAAYBE. This is the only hand I could possibly see villian having that you beat. [/ QUOTE ] So you think villain is only pushing with 67 J8 and KJ? I agree with Jim, sets and busted flushes will do this too sometimes. [ QUOTE ] Of course I am assuming villian is not hyper LAG, drunk, or brain dead. [/ QUOTE ] That's quite the assumption. Anyway, I call this pretty quickly. 
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#12
03-31-2006, 11:36 PM
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Re: $400 NL 6M - Strange River All-In Raise. Call?
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If he has the nuts, so be it - you'll win just as many hands as you'll lose like this over the long run. This is exactly like the "KK preflop OMG should I call?!?!" kind of post. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree, I think you see the nuts here (when villain smooth calls flop and turn and pushes for 4X the pot on the river) much more often than not. Any hand other than KJ, has to worry about only getting called by better hands and a bluff for this much seems insane.
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#13
03-31-2006, 11:37 PM
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Re: $400 NL 6M - Strange River All-In Raise. Call?
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This river raise is forcing folds out of every hand a set could beat and only getting looked up by a hand that it beats. Not to mention, a set never raises on flop or turn?!? [/ QUOTE ] If the river raise forces out every hand that it beats.... what exactly does this guy expect you to call with, like ever? Why does it make less sense for a set to not raise on flop or turn, than not a straight? Straight is pretty damn vulnerable on this board. [ QUOTE ] why would a busted flush draw decide to to bluff for 4X the pot on the river. If villian is this crazy wouldn't he push when is draw was still live? [/ QUOTE ] Lots of people do stupid things. I see it constantly. [ QUOTE ] Of course I am assuming villian is not hyper LAG, drunk, or brain dead. [/ QUOTE ] He just pushed 4 times the pot after hero didn't show that much strength. I would assume that he is at least one of these things a large portion of the time. Besides, if this raise really does push out as many hands as you think it does (I don't necessarily disagree), then wouldn't that make it a very high percentage bluff?
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#14
03-31-2006, 11:39 PM
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Re: $400 NL 6M - Strange River All-In Raise. Call?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If he has the nuts, so be it - you'll win just as many hands as you'll lose like this over the long run. This is exactly like the "KK preflop OMG should I call?!?!" kind of post. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree, I think you see the nuts here (when villain smooth calls flop and turn and pushes for 4X the pot on the river) much more often than not. Any hand other than KJ, has to worry about only getting called by better hands and a bluff for this much seems insane. [/ QUOTE ] you're trying too hard to rationalize a fold here... just b/c they raise all in doesn't mean they have the nuts. I go broke with the 2nd nuts here against a villain with no reads
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#15
03-31-2006, 11:41 PM
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Re: $400 NL 6M - Strange River All-In Raise. Call?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If he has the nuts, so be it - you'll win just as many hands as you'll lose like this over the long run. This is exactly like the "KK preflop OMG should I call?!?!" kind of post. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree, I think you see the nuts here (when villain smooth calls flop and turn and pushes for 4X the pot on the river) much more often than not. Any hand other than KJ, has to worry about only getting called by better hands and a bluff for this much seems insane. [/ QUOTE ] I know that NVG still hasn't found where Mahatma is playing, but I doubt it's NL400 at Party Poker. Players who play the nuts this way are few and far between at this limit. There are a ton of other hands that play this way (namely, any two cards) and since Villain appears to be an unknown to Hero, I make this call both thinking I'm ahead, and if not, I make a note of how this was played and move on. I can't believe you would ever consider folding second nuts here. Imagine same scenario on a K 9 7 4 2 r board, you have 99, are you folding because you assume KK missed his limp-reraise? OTOH, it's probably posted because Hero called and Villain had KJ. Still, plenty of other hands will play this way, including Hero's own J8.
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#16
03-31-2006, 11:52 PM
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Re: $400 NL 6M - Strange River All-In Raise. Call?
I am not saying I could ever fold this if I was actually put in this situation. And yes, I'm probably influenced by the fact that it's "probably posted because Hero called and Villain had KJ". I'm just saying pretty much everytime I have seen a villian show absolutely no strength throughout a hand and then Push the river for WAAAAAAY more than the pot, they have had the nuts. I agree this play is stupid regardless of your holding. But more often than not I think it is some silly villian praying hero has a hand strong enough to call his "strange" push, or convince himself that villian is bluffing.
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#17
04-01-2006, 02:04 AM
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Results
Villian had 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
FWIW Villian was a 20/4/1.1 over 35 hands. In those 35 hands Hero was something like 33/15/3. Given those stats and assuming Hero didn't have the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you still insta-call?
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#18
04-01-2006, 02:08 AM
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Re: Results
i would never fold this. Even without the J diamond. At nl400, you get paid off so often with second nut hands being all in on the river that it really subsidizes those times when you are against top nut. If this were at a higher limit, or player was much tougher, it would be a fold, but not here.
peace john nickle
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