27- Fold KK Pre?? omgwtfbbq

[MatteyA28]

25/50 8 handed 1500 effective stacks for all

Table has been quiet relatively quiet with few big pots. BB is tight multitabling regular.

UTG raises to 150
Hero has KK in MP2 and raises to 450
Button raises all in for 1500
BB calls all in
UTG calls all in
Hero?

[AMT]

wow, this actually could be a fold. congrats for posting something not completely idiotic about folding KK pf [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Q..]

Yeah fold is good.. unless you know they all are morons and also BBs hand [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Little John]

you can almost call for set value.

i call. you are not against AA 100% of the time.

[HajiShirazu]

I fold because you make a lot of ICM moneys when two people bust out this hand and you are almost always against AA.

[Alex_Rules]

If you hadn't already put in 1/3 of your chips you could talk about folding. I think as is you have to call and hope two of them have QQ and one of them has AK. It is close though, good post.

[mortimo]

I can`t fold here, sry [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Not with t450 already invested.

[Little John]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold because you make a lot of ICM moneys when two people bust out this hand and you are almost always against AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

not when you already put in 1/3 of your stack

[MatteyA28]

Wow i can't believe all the call reply's. When I posted this I figured it was an ez fold and wanted to show people a situation where folding KK pre can be right and to show new players how crazy a hand must be for a KK fold to be correct. Since this is getting mixed reviews I decided to do some ICM calculations and see what came up.

I don't have the exact hand history so I'm going to make some general assumptions. Effective stacks of 1500 for all except one person who doubled up early and has 3000. Assuming you fold and one player scoops the pot (split pot calculations too complicated for me but someone can try) the chip stacks look like...

1050-Hero
3000
1500
1500
1500
4950

assuming a 50/30/20 payout heros equity is $9.23.

If hero calls and loses, his equity is 0.

If hero calls and wins, chip stacks look like...

6000- Hero
3000
1500
1500
1500

And heros equity is 34.37.

Now for calling ranges. I assumed the widest possible ranges for each opponent. UTG and button I assumed JJ+ AK. BB I assumed QQ+. Assuming these ranges, Hero wins 22.2% of the time.

EV call = .222 * 34.37 = 7.63

Therefore hero should fold.

Note I was not hero in this hand. I will post results if requested.

[Q..]

Id call this at 5.5$ game, in other games AA got to be there 96%, and its either QQ or AK other guys, so our set isn't really going to be 2 outs in most cases.