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Old 08-22-2007, 01:24 PM
dilligaf817 dilligaf817 is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Springfield, IL
Posts: 96
Default How -EV is this call?

I will preface this by saying that I know I should have folded. I almost folded. I kicked myself before I called. I know I finish ITM close to all the time here, but I felt the BB, who was TAG, is pushing with any J or 10 here on the bubble, to force me off.

My question is to anyone who knows how to run this calculation. I need to learn, and this is about the best example I've ever encountered. How much money am I losing on this call? (Pay-outs at Stars 90-54-36). Do I always fold here unless I am playing a maniac (which I wasn't)?

PokerStars Game #11629470894: Tournament #58999994, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2007/08/22 - 13:10:25 (ET)
Table '58999994 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 5: ZPotvin (810 in chips)
Seat 7: keefy817 (4196 in chips)
Seat 8: The Stats (3827 in chips)
Seat 9: mikal12345 (4667 in chips)
ZPotvin: posts the ante 25
keefy817: posts the ante 25
The Stats: posts the ante 25
mikal12345: posts the ante 25
The Stats: posts small blind 200
mikal12345: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to keefy817 [Jd As]
ZPotvin: folds
keefy817: raises 400 to 800
The Stats: folds
mikal12345: calls 400
*** FLOP *** [Th 4h Js]
mikal12345: bets 3842 and is all-in
keefy817: calls 3371 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [Th 4h Js] [2h]
*** RIVER *** [Th 4h Js 2h] [7h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mikal12345: shows [Ad Jh] (a flush, Jack high)
keefy817: shows [Jd As] (a pair of Jacks)
mikal12345 collected 8642 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 8642 | Rake 0
Board [Th 4h Js 2h 7h]
Seat 5: ZPotvin folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: keefy817 (button) showed [Jd As] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 8: The Stats (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: mikal12345 (big blind) showed [Ad Jh] and won (8642) with a flush, Jack high
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