How -EV is this call?
 

I will preface this by saying that I know I should have folded. I almost folded. I kicked myself before I called. I know I finish ITM close to all the time here, but I felt the BB, who was TAG, is pushing with any J or 10 here on the bubble, to force me off.

My question is to anyone who knows how to run this calculation. I need to learn, and this is about the best example I've ever encountered. How much money am I losing on this call? (Pay-outs at Stars 90-54-36). Do I always fold here unless I am playing a maniac (which I wasn't)?

PokerStars Game #11629470894: Tournament #58999994, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2007/08/22 - 13:10:25 (ET)
Table '58999994 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 5: ZPotvin (810 in chips)
Seat 7: keefy817 (4196 in chips)
Seat 8: The Stats (3827 in chips)
Seat 9: mikal12345 (4667 in chips)
ZPotvin: posts the ante 25
keefy817: posts the ante 25
The Stats: posts the ante 25
mikal12345: posts the ante 25
The Stats: posts small blind 200
mikal12345: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to keefy817 [Jd As]
ZPotvin: folds
keefy817: raises 400 to 800
The Stats: folds
mikal12345: calls 400
*** FLOP *** [Th 4h Js]
mikal12345: bets 3842 and is all-in
keefy817: calls 3371 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [Th 4h Js] [2h]
*** RIVER *** [Th 4h Js 2h] [7h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mikal12345: shows [Ad Jh] (a flush, Jack high)
keefy817: shows [Jd As] (a pair of Jacks)
mikal12345 collected 8642 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 8642 | Rake 0
Board [Th 4h Js 2h 7h]
Seat 5: ZPotvin folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: keefy817 (button) showed [Jd As] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 8: The Stats (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: mikal12345 (big blind) showed [Ad Jh] and won (8642) with a flush, Jack high

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

why are you minraising?

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

It became the standard raise at the table when the blinds increased to 200/400. I also wanted to protect some chips against a BB shove-steal when the UTG player is putting more than half his chips in the next blinds and ante.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It became the standard raise at the table when the blinds increased to 200/400. I also wanted to protect some chips against a BB shove-steal when the UTG player is putting more than half his chips in the next blinds and ante.

[/ QUOTE ]

BB can't resteal if you go all in pf. Easy shove.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

I'm sure the steal works most of the time (it doesn't here, of course, but that is irrelevant), but is it advisable to raise 10x on the bubble when the next BB is so short?

Can anyone tell me anything about the post-flop play?

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

Is a raise to $1000 awful?

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It became the standard raise at the table when the blinds increased to 200/400. I also wanted to protect some chips against a BB shove-steal when the UTG player is putting more than half his chips in the next blinds and ante.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you care what the "standard" raise is. The minraise is awful here. This is a push or fold preflop scenario. The postflop call is fine.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

As played, I think you have to fold (though not sure if I could actually lay it down). There are too many draws out there and you've only invested 800 so far. Fold and get ITM.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

I'd just shove pf. min raising is too weak here. 1. you open another chance for sb/bb to resteal, if any of them shove on you, you have to fold. 2. had you shoved pf, they can't call you except for KK AA, because the bubble boy is going to be blinded out next hand or at most two hands later.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

Yes, read the FAQ, get an ICM calculator.

You should be pushing here every time & twice on Sunday. Moreover, you will be the chip leader when you take this down.