Shorting the Chiefs at 9.5 wins

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I think this line is well set. I have the Chiefs winning 10 or 11 games this season.

You overlook a couple big positives. First is a very strong improvement in the KC defense, specifically in the secondary with the addition of Ty Law. He fills a major gap - the Chiefs had one corner who was probably the single weakest corner in the NFL last year, solely responsible for almost all big plays they gave up last year.

Second is the sit down of Priest Holmes (placed on the PUP list) which means not only is Larry the man but he'll be the man without having to worry about splitting carries at all. His stats in the second half of the year were absolutely phenominal and there's little reason to think he won't put in the same level of performance.

One big negative you don't mention is the surprise retirement this week of Willie Roaf. He leaves a big hole in the Chiefs line that they certainly will not be able to fill with anyone comprable, despite his physical ailments.

The Chiefs are likely going to be a superbowl contender in the AFC this year, in my opinion. If they can address the Roaf retirement, easily one of the four strongest teams in tbe AFC and from there its only who performs best in the playoffs.

I also think the Chiefs have a pretty easy schedule this year. Always tough given that the AFC West is one of the tougher divisions in all of football, but I also don't see that many challenging opponents either.

I see 9-7 as the lowest KC will go this year, even with a very disappointing season. I expect something more like 11-5 or 10-6, with probable losses @Denver, @Pittsburgh, Seattle at home a possiblity (but the Chiefs are a well known powerhouse at home), maybe dropping a game either @Oakland or @San Diego (or possibly both), and possibly a loss at home vs Jacksonville to end the season (especially if they've already got the West wrapped up, which will be a possiblity). If they lose all of those games that's 10-6. If they only drop one on the road between Oakland and Diego, if they beat Seattle at home, that's 11-4 walking in to the last week of the season which is probably good enough to win the West with the parity there, so they may drop Jacksonville at home by resting starters. Hard to look that far in advance obviously.

Which games do you see them dropping to go 8-8?

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FWIW Hank Goldberg was saying basically the same things this week about KC. He said he was seriously thinking about layig money on them to win it all, mostly b/c they were getting like 17-1. If the revamped D can make an impact they are hyped for, i think 10 wins is a lock

And yeah, football is back my friends, finally [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Hank Goldberg is terrible. I've made money going the other way of what he says.