MTT Final Table -- QQ

[yNnOs]

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I read a post on 2+2 somewhat recently that said that often a better way to play QQ in a spot like this is to call preflop and then be ready to get it all-in on any non A or K flop. I've done this with a good deal of success recently. If you're in position, you can usually expect a c-bet from the OR. And if you're out of position, you can simply open-push or check/push depending on your read and image.

I think this is a very good way to take a slightly lower-risk route while increasing your value vs hands that would have otherwise folded to your preflop push.

Matt

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Good point. However, with antes, which pokerstars converters NEVER [censored] HAVE, I think it's an easy push. I mean, you have 180K and there is 50K sitting in the pot or something, right? If AK calls, good, you want AK to call here given the overlay (as opposed to deeper, where may rather play flop). JJ may call you here given stack sizes too, but no way he puts another cent in if an A/K flops. You don't really know. I mean, I see JJ call here all the time because "AK" starts floating in UTG+1's brain and he can't let it go.

Barry

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Good ideas on the various points to consider, but I think Barry wrapped up my rationale for shoving; w/antes of 800, the pot had about 51K. Thats just too much not to push. If I just call, I prob don't get any more out of him with no A/K, and may be in trouble if a K flops and he leads as I might be convinced its a continuation of JJ, etc. After which I'd be priced in anyway.

Lets play it out as if I called. The pot goes to 83K, and the flop comes 7 6 2, two clubs. Opp has about 180K left, I with 150K.

If he leads 40, I push and he still may call... maybe unlikely, but its happened before. If he checks and I lead for 50 or 60K, he may call with overs in which case he hits the K on the turn. After which, it seems incredibly hard to lay down my hand at that point. So all in all, it seems I'd be giving up value by not pushing. The only problem I had was determining whether giving up some of that value would've been beneficial in the context of my standing in the tournament at the time.

Thanks again, good discussion. If I were deeper, I really would've liked to call.

[chrismystero]

Buy-in?

Although it's still a shove.

[yNnOs]

Sorry, $2+.20, 1500 players

[CoolWave]

it sucks but yes we play to win and always shove here

[Hattifnatt]

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Sorry, $2+.20, 1500 players

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s h o v e

[gimmetheloot]

sorry but if this is a 109, its a shove still!
and barry, if we shove, no, we want him to fold AK....

[Pokerfarian]

Problem with calling & shoving over his cbet on non A/K flops is the obvious point - what if an A/K does flop. Sure we can fold & sure we've done better against AK than shoving preflop, but there are plenty of other hands he can have. This line enables us to get "bluffed" out by stuff like JJ, or AQ on a Kxx flop if we're folding there. I don't think calling & intending to fold A/K high flops can be better than shoving preflop. And if we're intending to get it in anyway we may as well get it in preflop (and not let JJ fold on a Axx board for e.g.)

[yNnOs]

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Problem with calling & shoving over his cbet on non A/K flops is the obvious point - what if an A/K does flop. Sure we can fold & sure we've done better against AK than shoving preflop, but there are plenty of other hands he can have. This line enables us to get "bluffed" out by stuff like JJ, or AQ on a Kxx flop if we're folding there. I don't think calling & intending to fold A/K high flops can be better than shoving preflop. And if we're intending to get it in anyway we may as well get it in preflop (and not let JJ fold on a Axx board for e.g.)

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Yep, all very bad stuff; supposed to make our decisions easier. I was curious about how I would've played AK in opp's position.

I raise 24K, and this "jerk" pushes for 188K or so. I have over 190K left, the pot is now around 230K and it cost me about 160K to call. This seems like a fold. I'm not even getting 1.5:1, and at best its a split. Most likely beat, and possibly even dominated. Is this about right?

[yNnOs]

bump until i get an answer. I'd like to know how you guys would play AK in the same spot. I mean, the guy insta-called. Is it that easy?

[helter skelter]

This is a final table ICM problem.

Although QQ is a very good hand, the consequences of losing are severe on the final table. Your hand needs to be a huge favorite over his range if you go allin, because your loss in equity is very high if you lose and your gain is much smaller than your loss if you win (-77% vs +45%)




(I looked up the stars tourney payout schedule and ante schedule for the numbers, assuming 2.20 buyin with 1500 entrants)

1st 540.00
2nd 324.00
3rd 192.00
4th 162.00
5th 132.00
6th 102.00
7th 78.00
8th 59.40
9th 39.30







Here is a range that would be +EV to go allin against. If his range would be narrower, then theoretically, going allin would be -EV

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.035% 63.23% 00.80% 98528580 1250781.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 35.965% 35.16% 00.80% 54789522 1250781.00 { 77+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }

I am not giving recommendations on how to play this hand. I am just pointing out that final table play is not the same as earlier in the tourney. One alternative might be to flat call and bet if he checks the flop (even if there is an A or K on the flop), fold if he bets a flop with an A or K, and obviously move in on any flop without an A or K.


The same kind of analysis could be done for his hand from his perspective, once he raises with AK and gets moved in on. Unfortunately, I don't have time to do that analysis, but the results might be contrary to what we expect, using ICM.