AA on paird Board

[Xhad]

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Because with this many people in, you aren't likely to be way ahead of the whole field, even if no one has a jack. If one guy has 79, one has QT, and one has 55, then there are 9 cards that could kill your hand.

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The main motivation behind the WA/WB line is that whoever is behind isn't getting close to correct odds to see more cards if they knew what the winner has. With <9 outs among 3 opponents that's still pretty much the case (as the increased chance of losing is offset by the extra bets going in).

[mtdoak]

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PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (15 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero ??

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Raise and re-eval. He'll bet alot of hands here, 99, TT. maybe even 77, T9s. Raise for value. If you get a cold caller on the turn who suddenly wakes up on a brick turn, then you'll be pretty sure your beat

[Christian_Peters]

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live game, you should flat call this (and avoid investing too much) and evaluate the action on the turn. either one of the SB's callers could easily be slowplaying a J here, and if they raise the turn we get out cheap. this is the power of position against Bb and UTG + 1.

i dont play online however (where the games supposedely are different), so take this advice with a grain of salt.

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Stars 2/4 plays like 20/40 live. I agree with your advice. I just keep calling unless SB's donk get's raised, then I fold.

If SB doesn't have a J, I expect one of the CC's to play a j like this on the flop and pop the turn.

Also, note that SB has the goods here very often considering he calls a PF 3-bet.
I expect to see either AJ, 88, or KJ from him very often - and in that order of likelihood.

[jstill]

call

this isnt the total answer of why callings best but consider this: we cant raise to protect our hand from any gutshot hands, so if we re raising its for value not protection.

however, raising here we probably do not have an equity edge against even sb HU when he donks out 5 ways on this flop, throw in the callers inbetween on this board with multiple people behind them and i think the strength these villains have shown actually make it less likely we have a pot equity edge despite the fact conceptually we need less equity to raise for value vs more opponents (basic theory there, but debatable about the perception of our equity in each case for sure HU vs 4 ways as in the OP).

also think from a HU standpoint to raise for value here, if we re always showing down, we need more than just an equity edge for that line to be more ev than just calling down since he ll put in more action with some range of better hands. Here one could argue the pot is so protected u can safely trust villains actions and fold safely to any 3bet, i wont argue but also say its not 100%.

christian, nit point but i would say 88 is more likely than AJ. we have 2 As and 2 Js are on the board and 88 is more likely to call preflop here than probably even AJs which is only 1 combo and 3 offsuit combos vs 3 of 88. KJ seems unlikely esp offsuit and suited again could only be 2 combos.