MrNow - Thoughts on FFIV

[Mr. Now]

I notice FFIV is insta-down 1.75% at 10AM today-- ouch, that smarts. I watch it from a great distance-- and observe volume, now.

[Mr. Now]

I notice FFIV goes to hell in a handbag, recently.

I also notice it exhibits impressive relative strength today, especially in light of how NASDAQ is falling out of bed.

I notice declining volume as FFIV spends more time under the 50DMA.

These items of interest as a group make me wonder if FFIV's recent decline has good odds of really putting the brakes on, somewhere near the neighborhood of $60 dollars per share.

I wonder how committed other traders may be, who see what I see now, and choose to enter long, in that price area.

I strongly suspect that traders who choose to enter in the $60 area have very weak conviction. They expect a bounce and perhaps if they do not get one, shortly after entering, things can get ugly fast.

[DCWGaming]

[ QUOTE ]
I notice FFIV is insta-down 1.75% at 10AM today-- ouch, that smarts. I watch it from a great distance-- and observe volume, now.

[/ QUOTE ]
I played FFIV on the SNES.

*edit* how unusually spammy of me... and on a forum that I dont usually post on...this cant make me look good

[Groty]

Analysts starting to pump the stock after the sell off:

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.m...7&mid=66567

[cdxx]

[ QUOTE ]
I notice FFIV goes to hell in a handbag, recently.

I also notice it exhibits impressive relative strength today, especially in light of how NASDAQ is falling out of bed.

I notice declining volume as FFIV spends more time under the 50DMA.

These items of interest as a group make me wonder if FFIV's recent decline has good odds of really putting the brakes on, somewhere near the neighborhood of $60 dollars per share.

I wonder how committed other traders may be, who see what I see now, and choose to enter long, in that price area.

I strongly suspect that traders who choose to enter in the $60 area have very weak conviction. They expect a bounce and perhaps if they do not get one, shortly after entering, things can get ugly fast.

[/ QUOTE ]

things did get ugly. wow, i was wrong, mr.now was right. i thought they'd beat the estimates, but instead a penny miss (with 33% quarterly growth mind you) and they tumble. still, the stock at 57 is a much better price than 66. i can't help but think there won't be a better opportunity to buy than this.

[Mr. Now]

cdxx ,

Thank you for your post.

I am not right or wrong, I simply observe. Having belief about "Right" and "Wrong" leads to some very serious errors in trading.

Ditching a "right/wrong" orientation leads to clarity of perception.

Market events have no meaning per se.

Develop keen observation skills, little by little. Then notice that you notice-- what others miss. Get that loop going. Observe.

Then back your clear perceptions with money, and always identify, manage and control risk.

[Groty]

Both FDRY and FFIV blamed their misses on weakness of sales to the Federal government in the last couple of weeks in the quarter. Seems strange. Usually companies use that excuse around the end of the government's fiscal year end in October.

[Mr. Now]

"i can't help but think there won't be a better opportunity to buy than this. "

Mr. Now notes that price gaps down stupendously, on volume of Biblical proportions (compared to average volume), with FFIV likely to test the 200DMA real soon now.

Mr. Now wonders out loud: maybe FFIV is actually poised to drop through the 200DMA like a hot knife through butter.

With 99.9% certainty, Mr. Now concludes this is a time to "not buy" FFIV.