MrNow - Thoughts on FFIV
 

Dropped from $73 to $65 on heavy volume since the month began. I've found no company specific news (although a minor competitor, RDWR, did lower guidance).

Closed yesterday just below its 50 day MA. Play it for a bounce? Or did the close below the 50 day MA suggest more downside to come? Thanks

Re: MrNow - Thoughts on FFIV
 

bounced up 66.75 now. wish i bought the may calls yesterday, i thought it would spend one more day in 64-65 range.

Re: MrNow - Thoughts on FFIV
 

fwiw, f5 products are the best of breed right now. i can't think of other network boxes that can compete with them, and they are soaking up business thanks to that reputation.

they could be a penny short this quarter, but i don't expect them to lower any guidance for next year. look for another 52-wk high on apr 20.

Re: MrNow - Thoughts on FFIV
 

I had intended to get my opening post off before the market opened but got distracted. I value MrNow's technical skills.

It did what I thought it was gonna do. Up $2.00 as I write this. Unfortunately, I didn't pull the trigger. I hate buying at the high of the day regardless of how much momentum is behind it. Another missed opportunity. I suck.

Re: MrNow - Thoughts on FFIV
 

Are you an analyst that publishes on the sector? What are your thoughts on PKTR?

Re: MrNow - Thoughts on FFIV
 

Mr. Now oberves the following about FFIV:

0. The instrument trends up on short-term basis;
1. It bounces off the 50DMA in January and February, and March;
2. It sells off on big volume into the 50DMA recently;
3. It penetrates the 50DMA yesterday and closes near 3% below that level, perhaps causing many long participants to wonder aloud if the party is actually over, likely cleaning out risk-defining stops placed by THE SMALL SUBSET of prudent longs;
4. On the day it opens ond closes below, yesterday, it trades on only about 1/2 the volume average of the previous day, suggsting a possible, perhaps (perhaps) probable bounce.

SUMMARY
Mr. Now suspects the trend that started 11/2005 may be over. However, Mr. Now also realizes that a long bet placed at the 50DMA with an immediate stop placed about 4% below may attractive to aggressive traders who believe a 12% advance to $74.22 in the next 14 trading days (or so) has at least 45% probability.

Mr. Now, if he held such a belief about these odds, would not commit more than 1 percent of total equity to this trade. This trivializes position risk (4% of 1%) and allows Mr. Now to remain detached, as he observes what Mr. Market actually thinks about FFIV, now.

Mr. Now strongly senses the very real possibility of distribution of FFIV from true professionals to the clueless public, and accordingly cannot commit to a trade of any size in FFIV now.

Re: MrNow - Thoughts on FFIV
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you an analyst that publishes on the sector? What are your thoughts on PKTR?

[/ QUOTE ]

i am not an analyst. i am much closer to the technical side of F5, than financial, but i am familiar with a co's financials whenever i invest.

PKTR is small fish compared to F5. i don't have any technical opinion on their appliances, but their products compete with maybe a quarter of F5's product line, so as far as competition PKTR poses no threat to F5, and their growth is somewhat limited compared to that of the sector.

that said, i have no idea why they are bouncing up so much in the last two days. absolutely clueless. if you own it, i'd hold on and see what develops.

Re: MrNow - Thoughts on FFIV
 

Groty,

I admire your discipline. You do not suck. You display virtue by standing aside. I salute you, now.

Re: MrNow - Thoughts on FFIV
 

I don't own PKTR. I know it only because it is a minor competitor to FFIV. Just curious if you had an opinion on how its quarter would play out. They are terribly inconsistent in their performance.

That's in contrast to FFIV, which has executed flawlessly for several quarters. But it ain't cheap by any measure, so if they ever do put up anything less than a flawless quarter, it's going to get creamed.

I was just thinking about FFIV as a trade. As MrNow pointed out, it bounced off its 50 DMA in Jan., Feb. and March. Those declines to the 50 DMA were on average volume, as opposed to the heavy volume that occured this time. And I don't think it ever penetrated the 50 DMA on the other down moves, as it did this time. So, I was wondering how a technical expert would interpret that data.

Thanks to both you and MrNow for taking the time to respond.

Re: MrNow - Thoughts on FFIV
 

Mr. Now takes special note of the fact that FFIV closes well below the 50DMA today.

It appears that the anticipated FFIV bounce event displays much lower probability of occurring, now.