2 hands (live 1/2/5)

[Aisthesis]

Hand 1:

I have AhAd8d2h OTB with $850 or so and raise to $30. 5 callers. Flop 8hTdJh. Player to my right (he has me covered) bets $160.

I laid this down but was very uncertain after the hand. I think I probably get very little in implied odds on my immediate flush, and I'm not sure this guy is the type to lay down a straight to a bigger straight, so I think it would be pretty risky bluffing a 9, Q or K. But... those cards might slow him down. If I spike an A, I'd be willing to push it. And I do get serious implied odds on a diamond (and if that happens to be 9, Q or K, I'd bet it). Anyhow, there are 18 "good cards" in the deck for me (8 for each non-pairing flush and 2 additional aces), and a paired board might also slow him down.

Hand 2:

I have $530 or so and raise KhQhTc8c to $25 OTB. 5 callers. Flop comes 7c3c2c. Checked to me, I pot it for $150. All but player to my right (same guy) fold. Hmmmm...

Turn 9c. Check. My play?

[Elrazor]

hand 1 i definatly like to peel a card off, any heart or diamond is a great card for you, plus any ace. of course if the turn is a brick you might have to give up but like you say if a diamond falls you have really good implied odds

hand 2 i check behind here - if hes slowplaying the ace you have 2 cards to bust him, so really dont want raising off your hand here if you bet. this feels like maybe a J-Q flush or possibly a set with there being so many clubs out. i think if the board pairs and he bets i probably lay down, but call a small value bet if it dosent

[alavet]

h1 i def call flop. you have a lot of value


h2 check and probably call river
you wouldnt get value for any bet here

[greywolf]

why are you betting the flop in hand two and what is your plan for the hand ?

hand 1 plays itself. Call flop and bet/call the turn if it improves your hand(probably fold it it pairs and he pots it). bluff turn if its a 9QK against alot of players.

[SuperSnort]

hand 2 any reads on player? is this the game where the preflop raise nearly always means aces? if so he may just put you on bare aces, but i would check hand 2 and fold hand 1

[Aisthesis]

Raising doesn't by any means nearly always mean aces, and I've been raising enough that it's also clear for me. I've probably been raising well over 10%. I rather think more than half the hands I've played at all have been brought in for a raise. Basically, I don't play many hands relatively speaking, but most of those for a raise.

I really think a simple check is just too weak on the KQT8 hand. I went ahead and bet the turn, and he insta-called with nut flush. I kind of like elrazor's line of basically assuming I'm beat once I get called. I was also thinking I might have some fold equity vs. bigger non-nut flush, but oh, well. While a bit risky, he definitely succeeded in maximizing value on his nut flush. It's pretty unlikely I have a set here, although I do pick up my 2 outer to str8 flush on the turn.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising doesn't by any means nearly always mean aces, and I've been raising enough that it's also clear for me. I've probably been raising well over 10%.

[/ QUOTE ]

A whole ten percent???
You Sir, are a maniac.

[Aisthesis]

lol, I'm tryin' to get it up there!

[Aisthesis]

I'm going to try a rough EV calculation on the AAds hand. I'm just going to assume he has Q9 here, as I think he will almost always. And please feel free to critique any assumptions I make here.

Here are the cases:

1) Turn non-pairing heart (8 times). I think my implied odds are low, but maybe sometimes he'll have decent hearts and bet or call. So, surely they're not 0. Let's say I win an extra $60 on average over and above the $160+180. So, that makes 400 here.

2) Turn Th. I think I usually win $340 here, although it's dodgy. Let's call it an average win of $100 to be conservative.

3) Turn 2d-7d (6 times). Pot on the turn is 500, and I think he fires about 400 at it here. I'd then have about 250 left. Now I double up on non-pairing diamonds for sure (7 times), so I win 340+400+250 = 990 in that case. Then maybe an average of 600 on the 2 pairing diamonds (I think I have to bet these rivers, as he's pretty much pot-committed and calls without being full). I won't go through the various other cases except one: If the river is an A, I think I do have to make a crying call for 250 for a pot now of 1,550 (?). If that's the best play, then my EV is $46.

4) Turn 9d, Qd, Kd. I think I may have some fold equity here, hence am for pushing. Let's say he puts in 350 and folds 1/4 of the time, and puts in 350 and calls the other 3/4. My EV on a call is now -75, but on a fold it's 180+160+350 = 690. This adds up to an EV of 180.

5) Turn A. I push here. I think he folds here a bit more often, since he's less likely to have 2 pair with whatever straight he has. And he's even going to check-fold sometimes. Let's just say he puts in 350 and folds 1/4, all goes in the middle 1/2, and he check-folds 1/4. That puts my EV at 235 here.

6) All other turns (22) I fold and lose 160.

I get as total EV here: $21.

Well, it sure seems like a lot of work and risk for 4 BB, but that's really a pretty decent difference in win-rates when it comes down to it.