100/200, Huge pot. Value bet the river?

4thstreetpete · #1 06-08-2006, 08:00 PM

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $100/$200
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with

UTG raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop:

(19.5SB, 3 players)
UTG bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn:

(12.75BB, 3 players)
UTG bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, MP2 calls, Hero caps, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

River:

(30.75BB, 3 players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero ? .

I've been thinking about this hand all day.

UTG and MP2 villains are your standard 18/10 weak tighties. Very good table though and I've been doing well and having my way lagging it up.

Can UTG have anything other than AK (with a flush draw on turn) or a set here? What about MP2? raising the flop and calling all the way. He's got to be on a draw because I think 2 pairs is out, possibly a set.

The river is really bad because both the straight and flush gets there. I'm confused here because they both checked (?).
Is this a very easy value bet based on the size of the pot?

rebuyboy · #2 06-08-2006, 08:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $100/$200
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with

UTG raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop:

(19.5SB, 3 players)
UTG bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn:

(12.75BB, 3 players)
UTG bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, MP2 calls, Hero caps, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

River:

(30.75BB, 3 players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero ? .

I've been thinking about this hand all day.

UTG and MP2 villains are your standard 18/10 weak tighties. Very good table though and I've been doing well and having my way lagging it up.

Can UTG have anything other than AK (with a flush draw on turn) or a set here? What about MP2? raising the flop and calling all the way. He's got to be on a draw because I think 2 pairs is out, possibly a set.

The river is really bad because both the straight and flush gets there. I'm confused here because they both checked (?).
Is this a very easy value bet based on the size of the pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

He can't have AK with a flush draw.

4thstreetpete · #3 06-08-2006, 08:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He can't have AK with a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

doh! you're right [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] say AKs is out, he's got either AA, KK or QQ. But none of these are consistent with the way the action went. If he's got a set of Qs I really doubt that he would wait till the turn to play this way given the flop. Villain is a very reasonable player.

Trix · #4 06-08-2006, 08:08 PM

I think it´s pretty rare that you will see a flush considering that they can´t fold As,Ks,Ts, so betting is very close to a freeroll. It´s pretty obvious that you have the nut straight, but it´s a huge pot and people tend to make crying calls in those.

luckychewy · #5 06-08-2006, 08:18 PM

There is only 1 combination of cards (Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) which seems reasonable the way the hand played out that beats you. I would have a hard time not betting here, although in the heat of the moment I may not realize this so quickly.

4thstreetpete · #6 06-08-2006, 08:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There is only 1 combination of cards (Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) which seems reasonable the way the hand played out that beats you. I would have a hard time not betting here, although in the heat of the moment I may not realize this so quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was a pretty big pot at the moment and I was confused about their checks because I'm confident they would not try to checkraise with their made flush on river (i think).

phish · #7 06-09-2006, 01:31 PM

I tend to value bet more into big pots since you're likely to get called by weaker hands. I think this is an easy value bet though I suspect you're only winning half the pot.

Kayber2 · #8 06-09-2006, 02:51 PM

I think this is a must bet. You're almost always chopping but someone is getting sandwiched with a crying call.

SackUp · #9 06-09-2006, 08:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a must bet. You're almost always chopping but someone is getting sandwiched with a crying call.

[/ QUOTE ]

my thoughts exactly. unless they start taking a 50% rake if you make another bet then bet away.

baronzeus · #10 06-09-2006, 11:06 PM

yes, definitely value bet. im pretty sure you split with UTG here but try to milk MP for an extra $100 each. no way he has spades here.