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#1
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42'ish left. Top 30 paid.
I have 80k. MP has ~220k. Blinds 3k/6k 500a. MP's open range is not huge but wider than almost anyone at the table. He's one of the only aggro players at the table. about 2 rounds ago he raised preflop to 14k (2k/4k blinds) and I shoved for 60k with AK. He took quite awhile before folding and I showed. MP opens for 20k. I have 55. Fold or shove? |
#2
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fold. hes gonna be getting it too good when it comes back to him to fold.
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#3
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He'll be getting about 1.88:1 to call when it gets back to him.
Let's say he open raises: 22+,A7s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A9o+,KJo+,QJo,JTo which is ~18% of hands. Let's say his calling range is 77+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+ which is ~ 6.5% of hands. So about 36% of the time he raises, he will have a hand in the range he will call with. If you push you will win the pot of 33,000 64% of the time and get called and be a 1.85:1 dog. When you are called and win you will have: 193,000 chips x .35 = 67550 When he calls and you lose: 80,000 x .65 = -52,000 So you have a net +cEV simply from him calling with this range, plus you throw in the added 21,000 chips you net from the times he folds to your push and this becomes a seemingly obvious push. My ranges could be way off, but I think even if you adjust his ranges slightly, you would still come out with a large +cEV. |
#4
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Shove. Not really much to say except that you have enough equity against his calling range and enough FE to make shoving much much better than folding here.
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#5
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I'm in the CO btw.
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#6
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eh ok, i guess
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#7
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Gotta push it.
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#8
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looks like w/ 3 to act and his position being earlier than i'd like(his raising range is prob tighter) i don't like it much. obv if u were bb and he was co it would be insta.
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#9
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[ QUOTE ]
Shove. Not really much to say except that you have enough equity against his calling range and enough FE to make shoving much much better than folding here. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, also throw in a read that you gave us, and the fact that it's the bubble of a live tourney and he's a lot more likely to fold, I like a shove here. He's not getting that great odds to call at all, and you only have 13 bb. |
#10
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Shove. Not really much to say except that you have enough equity against his calling range and enough FE to make shoving much much better than folding here. [/ QUOTE ] . Yeah, also throw in a read that you gave us, and the fact that it's the bubble of a live tourney and he's a lot more likely to fold, I like a shove here. He's not getting that great odds to call at all, and you only have 13 bb. [/ QUOTE ] Pretty easy push versus fairly loose player on bubble of live tournament. |
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