Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

42'ish left. Top 30 paid.

I have 80k. MP has ~220k.

Blinds 3k/6k 500a.

MP's open range is not huge but wider than almost anyone at the table. He's one of the only aggro players at the table. about 2 rounds ago he raised preflop to 14k (2k/4k blinds) and I shoved for 60k with AK. He took quite awhile before folding and I showed.

MP opens for 20k.

I have 55.

Fold or shove?

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

fold. hes gonna be getting it too good when it comes back to him to fold.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

He'll be getting about 1.88:1 to call when it gets back to him.

Let's say he open raises: 22+,A7s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A9o+,KJo+,QJo,JTo which is ~18% of hands.

Let's say his calling range is 77+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+ which is ~ 6.5% of hands. So about 36% of the time he raises, he will have a hand in the range he will call with.

If you push you will win the pot of 33,000 64% of the time and get called and be a 1.85:1 dog.

When you are called and win you will have:

193,000 chips x .35 = 67550

When he calls and you lose:

80,000 x .65 = -52,000

So you have a net +cEV simply from him calling with this range, plus you throw in the added 21,000 chips you net from the times he folds to your push and this becomes a seemingly obvious push.

My ranges could be way off, but I think even if you adjust his ranges slightly, you would still come out with a large +cEV.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

Shove. Not really much to say except that you have enough equity against his calling range and enough FE to make shoving much much better than folding here.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

I'm in the CO btw.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

eh ok, i guess

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

Gotta push it.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

looks like w/ 3 to act and his position being earlier than i'd like(his raising range is prob tighter) i don't like it much. obv if u were bb and he was co it would be insta.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

I think this is really, really borderline. Assuming illini's range is correct (and I think it's a bit tighter, but whatever), OP has to push tighter than 99+,AQs+,AKo for this to be correct to fold for him. When you take the large chip disparity into account as well, I doubt you have that much FE. This assumes he's a thinking aggro player and not some spewmonkey.

I don't see your position specified, but if there are 3 left to act that pushes this towards a pretty clear fold.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

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Shove. Not really much to say except that you have enough equity against his calling range and enough FE to make shoving much much better than folding here.

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Yeah, also throw in a read that you gave us, and the fact that it's the bubble of a live tourney and he's a lot more likely to fold, I like a shove here. He's not getting that great odds to call at all, and you only have 13 bb.